Is everyone else just as tired of waiting for the NFL Draft to get here?
The decision of Roger Goodell to delay the draft until early May was one made out of convenience for him and the NFL, so that they could stay at Radio City Music Hall. Unfortunately, for anyone who writes about the NFL, this delay has created a black hole of empty time which has been difficult to fill with content.
One of the ways many have attempted to kill this time is with mock drafts. Whether you are the one putting prognostication skills to the test in trying to predict what teams will do in the upcoming draft, or reading the countless mock drafts that are currently floating around the interwebs, mock drafts are everywhere right now.
Mock drafts are little more than informational. That’s all. While they provide interesting reading about scenarios and the players who will (hopefully) be selected, they are never completely accurate. Those who think they will be are grossly mistaken. While those who write mock drafts should be thanked profusely for giving the NFL fans something to read during this dead time, attempting to assign a player to a team at selection number 198 is an exercise in futility.
Since it is draft time, and topics to cover are few and far between right now, I thought my own idea of a mock draft should be provided. Consider it an “everyone else is doing it, why shouldn’t I?” kind of decision. My mock draft is going to be a little different than others though. Instead of assigning a player to be selected for each selection the Packers have, this will be called “the reality version”. What does that mean? You’re about to find out.
Round one, number 21: Best player available. Period. End of discussion. Whichever player is at the top of Ted Thompson’s draft charts, that is who gets selected in this spot. Don’t try to overthink this selection. Just keep repeating BPA. Last three years first round selections: Datone Jones (2013), Nick Perry (2012), Derek Sherrod (2011)
Round two, number 53: This will be Thompson’s best selection in the draft. He traditionally has had greater success in later rounds, starting in the second round. This is his bread and butter. Last three years second round selections: Eddie Lacy (2013), Jerel Worthy (2012), Randall Cobb (2011)
Round three, number 85: We want to thank Greg Jennings for running to the Vikings. Because of his defection, Ted Thompson can afford to trade this pick away in the hopes of moving up. It should be noted that Thompson has traded a third round pick three out of the past four years, so this seems likely again in this spot
Round three, number 98: Let’s again hank Greg Jennings and his decision to take the money and run to Minnesota for this gift of a draft pick. What does Thompson use this pick for? Think “high upside” on the player selected here. Someone who can start-just not right away. Last three years third round selections: none in 2013, none in 2012, Alex Green (2011)
Round four, number 121: Think defense. The last three drafts Thompson has gone defense in the fourth round. More importantly, think “a player who can make an impact right away.” The defense still needs help-they get some here. Last three years fourth round selections: David Bakhtiari, JC Tretter, Jonathan Franklin (2013), Mike Daniels, Jerron, McMillian (2012), Davon House (2011)
Round five, numbers 161 & 176: Going to combine these two fifth round picks for simplicity sake, because the reality is one of them won’t belong to the Packers by the end of the draft. Thompson will use 161 as trade bait for something. As for 176, a developmental player on either side of the ball sounds about right. This player most likely won’t see the field much as a rookie other than on special teams. Last three years fifth round selections: Micah Hyde, Josh Boyd (2013), Terrell Manning (2012), DJ Williams (2011).
Round six, number 197: This pick will be the “WHY?” draft selection for the Packers. Up to this point, every player selected has a little history with the draftniks. The sixth round has been very hit and miss for Ted Thompson. Once you see the names, you’ll understand what that means. Expect more of the same this year. Last three years sixth round selections: Nate Palmer (2013), none (2012), Caleb Schlauderaff, DJ Smith, Ricky Elmore (2011)
Round seven, number 236: By this point, Thompson has most likely picked up and extra seventh round pick or six. Ted loves his seventh round picks. He uses this round to finish off the roster. There is no rhyme or reason to this round. Could be offense, could be defense. The only thing that is a guarantee is the players selected in this round have a very good chance of making the final cut, because of Thompson’s draft and develop policy. They all stand a better chance making the team as a seventh rounder in Green Bay than any other team. Last three years seventh round selections: Charles Johnson, Kevin Dorsey, Sam Barrington (2013), Andrew Datko, BJ Coleman (2012), Ryan Taylor, Lawrence Guy (2011).
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John Rehor is a writer at PackersTalk.com.
He can also be heard as one of the Co-Hosts of Cheesehead Radio. ---------------------
13 responses to “Green Bay Packers Mock Draft 4.0: The Reality Version”
Great article, well written but you can’t trade comp. picks so your analysis for that 3rd round pick is off.
Great article, well written but you can’t trade comp. picks so your analysis for that 3rd round pick is off.
Ok-made the changes in the 3rd round to reflect the compensatory pick.
Thanks for the read. Good take. But I think you’re confused about which pick was the compensatory pick that we received because of Greg Jennings’ departure. The compensatory pick is #98, and it cannot be traded. #85 is our regular pick. I see that you suggested that you made changes to reflect this error, but I don’t see them.
Dammit-mixed it up again. OK, I think I have it correct now. Trade 85, keep 98.
Sherrod, Perry, and Jones were not the best on the board at that point.
And you know this for a fact based on what?
How about Corderrel Paterson. he is better they Datone. How about Harrison smith instead of Perry
That is your opinion. Jury is still out on both Jones and Perry, each of whom have had injuries that have derailed the start of their careers.
A lot of us may believe there were better players on the board in the first, but none of us is a Packers employee in the draft room. So you can’t say for sure that there were better players on TT’s board.
I didn’t realise how poor TT has been the last 3 years in Rounds 6 & 7. If this has been the result, then I hope he stays put in the early rounds or trades up. Sometimes it feels like TT and Bilichick are competing to see who can draft the most players.
I don’t look at it as poor drafting in the later rounds. It is difficult to get high impact players later, and drafts the late rounds the same was I would if I was in charge-players who are developmental guys who can play on special teams, and hopefully have a chance to start down the road.
Your Belichick comment is interesting, because I’ve made that same comment before. It’s almost like they want to max out the draft picks in order to make TC more interesting.