Below is a preview of this weekend’s matchup between the Green Bay Packer and Indianapolis Colts (6-3) scheduled for a 4:25 pm ET kickoff from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indiana.
Spread- 3 points favoring Indy
The Colts came into this matchup on Monday with an initial point spread of 3 but that line has moved to 2.5 and even 2 for some betting odds sites. Normally I would look at that and think that since the line is moving closer, there is a lot of risk on both sides of this line for oddsmakers since more than half of the money bet on this game (so far) is on the spread. It seems to be split in terms of money going to either team, and both teams have excellent records against the spread (Packers are 6-3, Colts are 5-4).
However, when digging deeper into what has already happened so far this year, the numbers look better and better for the NFC North leaders. In games as underdogs, they are 2-0 and are a strong 4-1 in away games. The presence of fans in an indoor stadium both plays to Green Bay’s strengths so I feel confident that they cover the spread.
Moneyline- Green Bay are Underdogs at +100
An underdog at +100 essentially is a washout, as this means that in order to win a $100 from the bet you would need a $100 wager, so there is little upside here especially relative to other betting opportunities that offer more profitable odds. As such, I don’t feel strongly here about either side but am in a hole for the season, so I will double down on the Packers here.
Total- O/U 51.5
The line here opened this week at 49.5 and has risen to 51.5 since then, which is contradictory to where the money has been going. 85% of betting is going towards the under (which isn’t too surprising given this is a matchup between one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses and a defense that leads the league in yards per game). While I do think that when great defense meets great offense, the defense will be victorious more often than not. The biggest difference-maker here for me isn’t the matchup between Matt Lafleur’s offense and Colt’s defense but will be the mental chess battle between Mike Pettine and Phil Rivers. The last time these two faced each other, Rivers got the best of the defense and ran the Packers off the field in a comfortable fashion. If Rivers and crew can replicate that kind of success again, this game should feature fireworks. Take the over.
Will GB score on their First Drive- YES (+140)
3 Straight Scores By Either Team- NO (+190)
Last Week- 1-4 | Season Total- 3-7
——————Joe Kelley is a lifelong Packer fan born in Wisconsin and currently living surrounded by Patriots fans in New England- please send messages of support to @Jkelleylol on Twitter or @j.k.lolz on Instagram.