Weird things always seem to happen when the Packers play road games against AFC North opponents. Past matchups have been filled with wild game scripts and unexpected twists and turns. Now while Green Bay has looked like an absolute wagon through two weeks, it doesn’t mean they’re perfect. Contrary to public opinion, the Browns have some buttons they can push in this matchup. I believe they’ll be a legitimate challenge for Green Bay on Sunday. So, here are my 3 keys for the Packers when they kick off against the Browns.
- 1. Will the Packers be able to establish the run?
The Browns have allowed a grand total of 91 rushing yards so far this season. 91! Cincinnati ran for 46 total yards in week 1. Starting running back Chase Brown averaged a meager 2.0 yards/carry in that game. In week 2, Baltimore ran for 45 yards as a team. Yes, you read that right. The Baltimore Ravens, the team with one of the more lethal backfield duos of my lifetime, ran for only 45 yards last week against Cleveland. Derrick Henry hit 2.1 yards/carry in that game by the way.
So, I hope it is clear that Cleveland has legitimate chops against the run. They anchor their front seven with Myles Garrett and top it off with exciting young players like Carson Schwesinger and Mason Graham. On tape their attacking nature pops out. The Browns shoot gaps with reckless abandon and they have been getting consistent penetration this season.
Green Bay has done lots of things well so far on offense, but consistent success on the ground hasn’t been one of those things. Rushing yards before contact have been tough to come by for Josh Jacobs, and this week might not be any different. Zach Tom and Tucker Kraft being questionable doesn’t help either. Those are two of the most important run blockers on this offense. All in all, Green Bay is going to have their hands full when trying to run the ball.
- 2. Can the Packers beat their man coverage looks?
The Browns play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Specifically though, they play an incredibly high rate of cover 1 man. This means they man up on all pass catchers and leave only one safety back deep in the centerfield position.
This aggressive coverage diet is part of the reason why they’re so good against the run. Playing cover 1 often means stacking the box with the extra defender that’s not back in coverage. This was evident against Baltimore last week. Cleveland so often played heavy in the front 7 in order to stop the run, spy on Lamar, or pressure the QB. The Ravens couldn’t get the ground game rolling and Jackson never got comfortable in the pocket. They relied on turnovers and short fields to score all game long. Looking past the box score, it was truly an impressive showing from Cleveland’s defense.
Cover 1 is a increasingly risky scheme to run, especially when facing top notch QB’s and WR’s. But, this is what the Browns are all about. They’re comfortable in this world. I’d also bet good money they know these Packers receivers have struggled at times against man coverage.
The Browns are going to play aggressively on Sunday. This coupled with the mere existence of the demi-god Myles Garrett, means Love may also struggle to get comfortable in the pocket. The Browns are going to bet that their secondary won’t need help against the Packers wideouts. It’s up to guys like Doubs, Golden and Wicks to win their matchups and prove the Browns wrong. Them being able to do so is a huge key in this game.
I’d bet on Golden to have his coming out party on Sunday. He was so consistently open on the film from last Thursday’s game. I’m positive Love and the coaching staff noticed that and will look his way more often on Sunday.
- 3. Will Joe Flacco survive this game?
The Packers pass rush is the best part of this team. They feast on opposing quarterbacks like a pack of wild dogs. Micah Parsons was asked this week about getting to Joe Flacco and his response honestly sent shivers down my spine. This group is locked in and I think it’s fair to say we haven’t seen this sort of mentality out of a Packers defense in a long long time.
For his own sake, I hope Joe Flacco didn’t see this quote.
The player to watch for the Browns will be RT Dawand Jones. Jones is a 6’8” 375 pound tackle currently playing in his third season. With such insane size, you could probably guess that his foot quickness leaves a lot to be desired. This means that Micah Parsons is the exact archetype of player built to give Jones absolute fits. Picture when you see a point guard in basketball draw a switch from an opposing center, and the lankier and slower big guy just can’t keep up. That’s what this matchup could be.
I’d expect Parsons vs. Jones to be incredibly one sided. As a result, I think there’s a real chance we see Micah’s first multi-sack game as a Packer.
Two other notable starters on the Browns offensive line are questionable, Jack Conklin and Joel Bitonio. Bitonio is especially important as he’s probably the Browns’ best player on offense. If neither of these guys can play, the Browns could be in serious trouble.
With old and immobile Joe Flacco behind this leaky offensive line, Green Bay is going to have a real chance to wreck this game completely. This is their biggest advantage in this matchup and it will be critical to exploit.
Prediction: Green Bay wins 20-13
The Browns will make it difficult for the Packers offense to move the ball consistently. In the end, Flacco will be pressured into a key turnover and Love will make just enough key throws to pull this one out.
