What to Expect From Aaron Rodgers Next Contract

It is almost never too soon to confront contract concerns over a player of Aaron Rodgers caliber. When asked earlier this week Rodgers said, “I know my value in this league, and I know the team appreciates me. I’m going to continue to make myself an indispensable part of this roster. When you do that, when your time comes up to get a contract, you usually get a contract extension.” The NFL market is only going up therefore so is the number on Rodgers next projected pay check. Right now the top four cap hits for 2017 are all owned by quarterbacks. If Joe Flacco averages $22 million a year Rodgers will likely want to sky over that. He currently averages the same as Flacco who is at least one tier lower the Rodgers on the quarterback totem pole.

Contract talks became more pressing following Rodgers comments about Mike Glennon getting $15 million a year with the Bears.

The final year of Rodgers current contract will result in a $21.1 million dollar cap hit in 2019. If all goes as planned they will have agreed upon an extension by then. Especially given the skyrocketing market for QBs around the league. There are talks of Oakland’s Derek Carr getting at least $25 million a year on his next deal.

If Rodgers was 26 again he would certainly warrant the same. Yet even at 33 he deserves to be the highest paid player in the NFL.

Right now that title belongs to Andrew Luck who was inked to a five-year $140 million dollar deal. That is a resounding $28 million a year. The most in NFL history. The case can be made that Rodgers deserves at least the same if not upwards of $30 million a year.

With a NFL salary cap that is only going up the Packers should act sooner than later. When Rodgers resigned in 2013 the cap was $123 million. Since then it has risen to $167 million.

Mediocre quarterbacks such as Brock Osweiler are getting insane money with over 50% of it guaranteed. Rodgers did not even get that on his last contract. Only $54 million of his $110 million was guaranteed.

To be clear Rodgers is not saying “pay me now or else.” We are not talking about a training camp holdout here. Or even that as a possibility. However, it has became more obvious that he is underpaid. Rodgers likes having new toys to play with on offense and understands that money has to be spent on defense to win championships. But, does Rodgers think he is underpaid? Yes. Is he hoping to have a new deal soon? Probably.

Hopefully sooner than the 2020 offseason Rodgers will have put pen to paper. He knows the Packers front office appreciates him. Hell, they would give him a lifetime deal if they could. Barring that Rodgers does not get too greedy a four-year $118 million dollar extension should be doable.



Brandon Carwile was a Cheesehead at birth. His dad grew up attending games at Lambeau and passed on the legacy. He has covered the Packers for over five years and currently works with packerstalk.com. Find him on twitter at @PackerScribe.



7 thoughts on “What to Expect From Aaron Rodgers Next Contract

  1. Best and most valuable player in the NFL. 35 million per year on a 5 year extension sounds in the ballpark.

    He is a good guy on and off the field and believe he should push for market value or more.

    While all NFL football salaries are ostentatious compared most all in the private and public sectors of our economy, the select few such as Rodger and Brady are the best at their profession and the delta between their salary and the rest should be markedly different.

    1. Whoa Nelly! First, Luck got $24.5M AAV, not $28M. That is still a lot given that
      Luck really hasn’t been that good: he is a full tier below AR. OTOH, he is younger. Second, I see no reason to think AR is demanding anything at this point. Based on the structure of the last contract, it seems to me that talks for an extension were intended to occur after the 2017 season (there is no guaranteed money left on the contract after the 2017 season, though AR is under contract for ’18 and ’19.

      If AR demands his full market value, so be it. I won’t blame him. Right now AR’s cap hit is about 12% of the cap. $35M would be north of 20% of the cap. I am inclined to believe that it would be next to impossible to win a SB while paying one’s QB 20% of cap. Nor am I willing to assume that the cap is going to increase by 8 figures each and every year for the length of AR’s extension. Of course, the structure and the timing of when any guranteed money comes off the contract are as, or more important than, the AAV.

      1. Don’t call me Nelly, but it was a funny line perhaps from an old cowboy movie.

        I believe Rodgers and/or agent will look to the $35 million range for a new contract and I don’t blame him. I’m awful happy to see him under center for the Packers rather than Bradford and his $18 million cap hit this year. And while Drew Brees is a very good quarterback, but not in the class of Rodgers, here is his contract extension which avoided a $30 million cap hit for 2016 which carries an enormous amount of dead cap money: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/drew-brees-4542/

      2. Completely agree. If the Packers were to pay Rodgers $35 million a season the Packers ability to put participate in free agency like this year, sign some of their own players to 2nd contracts like Bakhtieri or Perry, would be gone. I also couldn’t see Thompson or hopefully ANY GM handcuffing the Packers that way. It would be in the Packers best interests to extend Rodgers early to hopefully keep the price down.

        1. Nick, expect ticket prices to go up for the 9th straight year and additional revenue from teams moving into new stadiums and we can fully expect to see the salary cap move up accordingly.

          I believe truly Rodgers will be given a contract in the $35 million range to keep him ahead of the escalating salary structure for quarterbacks.

          I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raiders give Carr a contract in excess of $25 million this year.

          At present, I believe Rodgers is the most valuable and talented quarterback in the NFL.

          As they said in Richard Pryor’s movie: “Pay The Man”.

  2. “To be clear Rodgers is not saying “pay me now or less.” —

    I am going to presume you mean — pay me now or else.

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