Packers Preview with and without Aaron Rodgers

At the beginning of this offseason, the Green Bay Packers were expected to be deep into the playoffs and Super Bowl hopefuls once again.

Then the draft happened.

Just when we thought that top brass in Packersville would get the League MVP what he needed to get past the NFC Championship Game, they go ahead and do … not do that. They wait until the 3rd round to get him a target. So, now we have a 3rd round rookie coming in … that’s a real game-changer for the offense.

And Aaron Rodgers, perhaps one of the top 5 QBs the league has seen in 20+ years, decides enough is enough. And we see a team that had early Super Bowl odds at the top of the boards, fall, fall, and fall.

Green Bay opened at Virginia’s Online Casinos with Super Bowl 56 odds around +1200. Now they are between +1600 and  +1900.

The funny thing is, it hasn’t impacted their odds to win the NFC North.

It’s like the bookmakers know that the Packers will be good enough to smash their division but will once again be too one-dimensional to make that last big leap and land in the Super Bowl.

Odds to Win the NFC North

  • Green Bay Packers -120
  • Minnesota Vikings +250
  • Chicago Bears +325
  • Detroit Lions +3000

What it has impacted is their season wins totals lines.

The OVER/UNDER on regular-season wins for Green Bay opened up at 11 games. That number was right at the top, with Tampa Bay at 11.5 and the Chiefs at 12. However, if you look at non-static pages now, the Packers line usually says ‘OTB,’ meaning Off the Board.

  • Green Bay Packers OTB
  • Minnesota Vikings 9
  • Chicago Bears 7.5
  • Detroit Lions 5

The other interesting thing is, the Vikings opened with a season wins line of 8.5 but now are at O/U 9. So, the public must have jumped all over the Vikes to get an extra win with Aaron Rodgers’ future in Cheeseland up in the air.

So much so that the Drew Brees-less New Orleans Saints are -3 favorites over the Packers in Week 1.

Packers Outlook With Rodgers

If Aaron Rodgers acquiesces to play for Green Bay for another season … or if they find enough legal leverage to make him, I do believe the Packers will win 11 games. But it depends a little on how it comes to be. If Rodgers comes to it on his own terms, the Packers will make the playoffs again. If he is legally forced into it, I still think they’ll win games because Aaron Rodgers simply doesn’t like to lose. That said, that clutch motivation to win for the team and town won’t be there.

I’m sure that they’ll at least win those division games needed to take the NFC North and get into the playoffs comfortably. After all, the Lions are going to be terrible. The Bears will be decent, but not a severe threat. And the Vikings … well, they have Dalvin Cook so, you can’t look past them on any given Sunday.

Packers Outlook Without Rodgers

If you look at the depth chart options at many MSM sites, Blake Bortles is the projected starting QB if A-Rodge doesn’t play. That isn’t a great look. I know Matt LaFleur is all about the Bortles, lauding his experience and such, but come on. Blake Bortles is not a starter in this league anymore. He is a guy that is good enough to come in and get you through a couple of games when your starter goes down with a stinger … or COVID.

I would say, go ahead and just throw Jordan Love in there and sleep in the messy bed you’ve made. You are going to lose some games, but hey, just like you wanted, you’re skipping winning the Super Bowl now for a chance at it in the future.

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