Aaron Rodgers: Over or Under 30.5 Passing TDs in 2022

Whether you use FanDuel, Caesar’s, DraftKings, or some other betting site, over the next few weeks comes the exciting time of future betting odds being dropped. Win totals and division/conference/Super Bowl winning odds are mostly out, but what get’s really fun are the player props. And just this week, Vegas has posted Aaron Rodgers at a passing TD total of 30.5 touchdowns for the regular season.

I want to be very clear, no one should bet their savings accounts on my opinion. I myself bet in small amounts as a fun way to be more engaged in various different games. Please gamble responsibly and as they say, know when to fold ’em.

Now, with that said, this is about as easy as a bet will get.

Over the 2020 and 2021, Rodgers through for 48 and 37 touchdowns respectively. Reminder for each of those that he did not play a full 17 games. 2020 of course only had 16 games in the regular season and Rodgers sat out a game and a half in 2021.

Since Matt Lafleur has taken the reigns as signal caller, Rodgers has averaged approximately 2.25 TDs per full game played. If you averaged that to 17 regular season games you get just over 38 TDs. That STILL leaves room for Rodgers to have a few off games/miss a couple and come in over the 30.5 mark.

But let’s ask the question everyone else is, who is Rodgers going to through them to?
Simply put, everyone.

Do not get me wrong, Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be greatly missed. Adams took attention away from other players and MVS could take off the top of the defense with the best of them. However, everyone else knew that too. Other coaches defended, or tried to defend, against Adams and hope no one else beat them. This offense is going to be completely different.

Aaron Rodgers is at his BEST when he is throwing the ball all around the field. We have seen it for years whenever Adams has been hurt. Look no further than Arizona in 2021 or New Orleans in 2020. Since 2019 he is first in the league in touchdowns. Takeaway all thrown to Adams and he is still 9th!

Rodgers knows where the ball is going before he was throws it. Last year, the defense always thought it would be Adams and were right 34% of the time. This year, it will be randomly guessing every single play.

I am not naïve, I know 48 TDs in 16 games is probably unlikely. But 30.5 TDs over 17 games is INSANELY low. This offense will figure itself out. Jenkins, Tonyan, and (hopefully) Bakhtiari will come back to solidify the offense. and Rodgers is going to cruise to an easy 35-40 TDs this year.

Then we win.

PJ is an Ohio native who was fortunate enough to be born into the green and gold family through his father who grew up in Green Bay. He now resides in NYC where he is an avid fan and fantasy football player. You can follow him on twitter at @roden_pj.

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