The Jordan Love era is upon us.
The Green Bay Packers are entering the 2023 season with a new starting quarterback since the 2008 season when Aaron Rodgers took over for Brett Favre. No one knows what the Packers truly have in Jordan Love. The team knows better than anyone, and it seems they aren’t even sure based on the contract extension they gave him this offseason that would protect them if he doesn’t pan out.
Fans and media like to get excited about OTA performances. Early indications are that Love looks pretty good and is making some impressive throws.
But take what you read on Twitter with a grain of salt. A player’s performance in OTAs is not necessarily an indicator of success in the regular season.
We have a very small sample size to judge Love by. He’s played in just a few preseason games and 10 regular season games while starting one game. In those 10 games, he has completed 60.2% of his passes and thrown for 606 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. It’s not much to go off of, but let’s take a look at what his ceiling and floor could look like in the 2023 season.
The Ceiling for Jordan Love
Unlike many first-time starting quarterbacks in the NFL, Love is set up pretty well. He has a very solid offensive line that includes one of the best left tackles in the league. He has a plethora of weapons with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the backfield and an up-and-coming receiving corps.
Matt LaFleur’s offense is supposed to be able to scheme players open, creating some easy completions for Love. If he doesn’t try to do too much and throw to the open guy, I think Love will be able to have an efficient season where he can put up some decent numbers. Being a threat to run should also help him out too.
I think most Packers fans would be happy if he ended the season with:
Completion Percentage: 66%
Passing Yards: 3,924
Passing Touchdowns: 31
Interceptions: 11
In this scenario, I think the Packers are going to lean hard on the running game. They have a great duo of backs and it can help take the pressure off Love. Because of that, I don’t think Love is going to be putting up huge passing numbers, nor does he need to. We are going to get to see a closer version of the ‘Matt LaFleur offense’ this year with Love at the helm. I think that offense is more balanced than it was in the past with Aaron Rodgers running the offense.
If Love put these numbers up in his first season as QB1 for the Packers, that would be very encouraging for his future in Green Bay.
The Floor for Jordan Love
Next, let’s look at the flip side of things. Let’s consider the ‘floor’ as a season where Love plays a full season without getting benched but leaves a lot to be desired. Granted, the Packers don’t have a viable backup on the roster right now for Love to get benched anyways.
The expectations for the Packers are already pretty low. That affords the Packers a season to ride or die with Love and evaluate after the season. A ‘floor’ season for Love in my mind would look something like this:
Completion Percentage: 58%
Passing Yards: 3,106
Passing Touchdowns: 17
Interceptions: 20
If something like this were to happen, I think there were probably a few things that went wrong. First, the run game was probably ineffective, forcing Love to throw the ball more. For a first-year quarterback, I could see him feeling the pressure and turning into a bit of a gunslinger that forces some throws, resulting in a lot of interceptions.
If Love were to have a season like this, the Packers would likely have a higher draft pick in the 2024 Draft and could be looking to take a quarterback early.
Christian Borman is a lifelong Packers fan residing in the Madison area. He writes for PackersTalk and you can follow him on Twitter @christianborman.
