I’ve played fantasy football for something like twenty straight years. Over the years, I’ve gone to college, gotten married, gotten a grown-up job, had multiple kids and mostly ran out of time to spend on the waiver wire each week or the best late round picks. I already pay a lot of attention to the draft, enjoy playing Madden, and, of course, have a normal life with the kids or whatever, so my fantasy choices are mostly derivatives of those other things. If a rookie I liked in the draft falls to the last round I’ll take him. If some random RB gets 100 yards against me in Madden, I’ll pick him up. And, for better or worse, I’ll probably end up with a few Packers on my team. Let’s go over the candidates for Packers fantasy this season.
QB
Jordan Love’s ADP (average draft position) right now is 60th. He’s been the eighth QB drafted on average, right after Joe Burrow and right before Dak Prescott.
Generally speaking, I think Love will perform better than last year – where he finished fifth in scoring among QBs. I think his pass yards and TDs could definitely go up (from 4,159 and 32 last year) but it’s rush yards where he could really beef up his points. Love had just 247 rush yards last year. 100 less than Trevor Lawrence and 150 less than Patrick Mahomes. Add in some more confidence inspired scrambles and a few designed runs/RPOs and I could easily see Love tacking on 200 more rush yards than last year and a few more TDs.
All that said, the 5th/6th is probably where Love should be drafted. The QBs ahead of him all have elite level rushing profiles or the opportunity to throw for a lot more yards thanks to worse run games.
RB
Josh Jacobs is a true boom or bust back this season. If he returns to 2022 level play on a Matt LaFleur offense, he could easily be the top back in the NFL again. He could also get hurt in week 2 or just prove that he’s lost a step and not even wind up a top-20 back.
Right now, he’s going tenth among RBs and 32nd overall. After backs like Derrick Henry and De’Von Achane, both of whom have similar boom or bust profiles this season. If it comes down to these three for me, I’d happily take Jacobs to be able to root for him twice.
I wouldn’t draft AJ Dillon or Marshawn Lloyd except Lloyd in dynasty type leagues.
WR
Wide receiver is the real crazy position for the Packers this year. The Packers have four guys with WR 2 potential, all going at very different spots: Christian Watson (91), Jayden Reed (69), Dontayvion Wicks (164), and Romeo Doubs (130).
The best bet here is obviously Wicks. If you simulated the 2024 season 100 times, Wicks could easily be the team’s number one receiver in 30 or 40 of those simulations. To get a number one WR on an offense likely to be top-5 in the 16th round is insane.
Reed is probably a little more likely to end up as WR1. He has the tape and stats from last year to prove it and has more of a defined role than Wicks.
Watson is going higher than Doubs and Wicks because his upside is huge. If he becomes a true number 1 WR for the Pack he might be the most athletic number 1 in the NFL.
Finally, Doubs could very well be JAG and one who will be passed up on the depth chart this year – that’s why he’s fallen to pick 130. But it’s hard to ignore the chemistry that he’s developed with Jordan Love as well as his clutch TD catching ability.
You should probably end up with one of these guys on your team, at the very least buy a Wicks lottery ticket.
TE
Luke Musgrave is going as tight end 18 (148 overall) and Tucker Kraft is going as tight end 36 (249 overall). Unfortunately, I can’t be that mad about these draft spots.
Both guys have a recent injury history and both guys have to deal with the other one (plus six starter level WRs and a few good pass catching backs) stealing targets.
Unless you’re in a league that only plays tight ends, I’d avoid both of these guys until one of them inevitably gets injured. If that happens, blow your waiver wire load on the other.
D/ST
Do everything you can to convince your league to drop defense/special teams and kickers. It’s the lamest part of fantasy. That you can lose because of a kicker or because some dillweed QB threw up 5 picks to the other guy’s defense.
Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan currently living in Utah. You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.
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