Toyoathon has started and winter has come and the Packers offense is inevitable. Think about what you need for a successful modern offense. You start with a quarterback who can make every throw and a wide receiver who can stretch the defense—force the defense to stick with two high safeties, which they want to anyway.
Next, you need a consistent run game. A run game that you can depend on in almost every situation. And a running back who will level up as the defense wears down. But, that’s not enough.
You need a creative play caller who will sequence plays together and come up with different looks every week. Often looks that build upon what you’ve done in prior weeks. But, that’s not enough.
You need a possession receiver or two who can move the chains on third and medium. And a receiver to use in your misdirection, that is, one to run routes out of the backfield and take jet sweeps thirty yards downfield and move the linebackers with motion done for no reason. If those two guys are the same guy, even better.
Modern defenses have a way to stop almost everything. To win, you need to become inevitable.
Packers Offense Level 1
Even though run games and runningbacks are taking over again, I still think the backbone of a good offense is a QB who can turn his back to the defense on play action and then uncork a 60-yard bomb while bootlegging. And, it’s not just about arm talent of course.
You need the QB who won’t wilt under pressure. Who won’t randomly start deciding to go for every checkdown. Who can read defenses and make good decisions. We know, and we saw it in real life against the 49ers last week, that the minute the good QB goes down, these offenses get shredded.
If your QB can’t make the defense pay in some way, the defense will just figure out a way to focus on everyone else and then it’s game over.
The Packers, obviously, have this with Jordan Love and they have the field stretcher with Christian Watson who is coming into his own over the past few weeks.
Packers Offense Level 2
Interestingly, the Packers have had level 3 (creative playcaller) for all of Matt LaFleur’s tenure and even level 4 (misdirection receiver and possession receiver) for much of it. But this is the first time the Packers have a dyed-in-the-wool power run game that they can lean on.
Sure, they had Aaron Jones and a lot of rush yards and a high rush EPA in the past, but they didn’t have a run game that they could bully the other team with. They have that now with Josh Jacobs.
Packers Offense Level 3
Now that Kyle Shanahan has fallen prey to the ole “we have the Avengers as our offense so let’s just let them make plays and stop being as creative” problem (see Mike McCarthy circa 2012), LaFleur and company have a good case to make for the most creative offensive designers and play caller.
They went from traditional down field play action attack in week 1 to single wing counter spinner runs in week two. Since then, they’ve merged the single wing run attack into the offense and built from it. All on the fly after training camp. It’s insane.
Packers Offense Level 4
Of course, you can have a good QB, a good run game and a creative play caller but you still need someone to move the chains consistently. The Packers have that now with Jayden Reed.
Reed is the best running receiver in the league and is getting better each week at finding the holes in zones and creating separation against man to get open on third down.
The best part is that Tucker Kraft and Romeo Doubs are also great players at moving the chains. Kraft will fall forward and get extra yards on every arrow route and RPO target and Doubs is perfecting the strong hands in cut catch on third and long.
Inevitability
Put it all together and you have an offense that responds to everything the defense throws at it. If the defense tries to take away the deep pass, you can run against light boxes. If they fill up the box and double your downfield targets, you have other guys to profit from the misdirection. All the while, Matt LaFleur is keeping the opposing team and coach’s heads spinning.
