It’s an adage as old as the league itself. Get hot at the right time. You want to be playing your best football as the playoffs approach. The stretch run to the playoffs starts on Thanksgiving. For playoff-caliber teams, winning in December leads to winning in January. Matt LaFleur’s post-Thanksgiving record as coach of the Packers is as good as anyone could reasonably hope. The 2024 Packers continuing that success should lead to a deep run in the playoffs.

Five Years of Late-Season Success

Matt LaFleur became the head coach of the Green Bay Packers before the 2019 season. That 2019 team was 8-3 heading into Thanksgiving week but only had a +16-point differential. The standard complaint around that team was its record was schedule driven and they weren’t real contenders. That team finished the season 5-0, earned a bye, and would reach the NFC Championship Game.

The 2020 season saw the NFL change its playoff format so only the best team in each conference would receive a bye. The 2020 Packers topped the NFC and earned that bye thanks to its 6-0 record after Thanksgiving. That team similarly reached the Conference final before succumbing to Tom Brady’s Buccaneers.

Two seasons under the new format, two byes for Matt LaFleur’s Packers. The 2021 team won the first five games after the Thanksgiving holiday to run LaFleur’s post-Thanksgiving record to 16-0. The final win in that stretch clinched the bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs, leading LaFleur to rest his starters in the second half of the meaningless final game in Detroit. That meaningless game would become LaFleur’s first late-season loss but gave Jordan Love some valuable experience.

The only season of LaFleur’s tenure that didn’t end in the playoffs was 2022. That team still gave itself a chance to get by going 4-1 in the first five games after Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, they couldn’t close the deal and ultimately dropped the finale to Detroit again. However, an 8-9 team finishing the season 4-2 still meant they were playing their best ball at the right time.

The 2023 Packers returned to the playoffs on the strength of a 5-2 closing stretch. That team was 3-6 before winning the Sunday before Thanksgiving. That win was a springboard to a Thanksgiving Day win in Detroit. Subsequently, they beat the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and consolidated the confidence they would need to drive into the playoffs and demolish the Cowboys in Dallas.

Altogether, Matt LaFleur’s Packers teams have gone 25-5 in games played on or after Thanksgiving. If you translated that .833 winning percentage over a 17-game regular season, you’d have a 14-3 record. 30 games is almost two full seasons worth, so this is not a small sample size fluke.

Super Bowl Teams Post-Thanksgiving

To put in perspective how good LaFleur’s record is, consider how teams that reach the Super Bowl fare in post-Thanksgiving games. Since 2019 those teams are a combined 46-17. That translates to a .730 winning percentage. Matt LaFleur’s post-Thanksgiving record is significantly better than even the teams you would expect to have the best records if the adages are true.

Kansas City has reached four of the five Super Bowls since 2019. Andy Reid’s Chiefs teams have a 20-5 record in post-Thanksgiving games in those four Super Bowl seasons. The great Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes combination has barely been as good as Matt LaFleur with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love following Turkey Day.

Applying to the Remaining Schedule

The Packers have five games remaining in the regular season. If they continue winning games at the rate they have under LaFleur’s tenure, they would expect to win four of those games. That would make their final record 13-4. If three of those wins were to come against Detroit, Minnesota, and Chicago, the Packers would likely win the NFC North division and get their first playoff game at Lambeau Field. It’s unlikely they would be able to pass Philadelphia for home-field advantage and a first-round bye, but winning what may be the best division in the history of the league would be a major momentum-builder going into the post-season tournament.

Pulling the Strings

Ultimately, it’s the players who are on the field and winning games. They deserve their share of credit for this resounding success. But there’s too much success smoke here to think there isn’t a fire. LaFleur speaks frequently of his team’s “one-game mentality”. Perhaps that mentality keeps them focused on the task at hand instead of looking at a shrinking big picture. Perhaps there’s something else he’s telling the team or a different way he’s preparing the team late in the season. Maybe it’s something he does in the early season that manifests later. Whatever he’s doing, Matt LaFleaur’s post-Thanksgiving record is remarkable and should be appreciated as such.