Going into the Packers’ critical Week 14 game against the Detroit Lions, they knew they would have one structural advantage. Most of the Lions’ defensive front seven were injured and unavailable. The Lions had signed Kwon Alexander and Jamal Adams off the street so that they would have enough bodies to get through the game. The Lions’ situation should have been a tremendous advantage for a team as good at running the ball as the Packers are. Unfortunately, Matt LaFleur and the Packers failed their Level-0 test to Aaron Glenn and the Detroit defense.

In Game Theory, Level-0 thinking suggests each opponent starts with a base (Level-0) assumption about their opponent’s strategy. They should then implement a Level-1 strategy that is most effective against that Level-0 strategy. Each opponent doing so creates an iterative ladder. Each assumes whatever strategy they choose will be trumped by the opponent’s. They should ultimately find an optimal strategy that is easiest for them to execute and most difficult for the opponent to counter.

For the game against the Lions specifically, the Level-0 strategy for the Packers would be to run the ball at the depleted Detroit defense. The Lions’ Level-0 strategy would be to “load the box” with additional defenders. That would make it easier to defend the Packers’ running game. This is where Matt LaFleur lost the “game”. He tried to level up on the Lions by throwing the ball early assuming they would be stacking the box. But Aaron Glenn leveled up on LaFleur by not stacking the box and blitzing when the Packers tried to throw.

The Packers didn’t score on any of their first three drives, comprising 11 total plays. In those 11 plays, Detroit had six men in the box three times, seven men six times, and eight men in the box only twice. Since it’s generally assumed that a “stacked box” means more than seven defenders, that was obviously not Detroit’s base strategy. The Packers would run the ball three times and drop back to pass eight times in those 11 plays. In those eight dropbacks, Detroit brought pressure (more than four pass rushers) six times. The only real successful play the Packers managed in those blitz situations was the pass to Christian Watson that ended their third drive when he fumbled at the end of the play. They leveled up LaFleur perfectly.

This begs the question, what should LaFleur have done to level up the Lions given what we know about their early strategy? The Level-0 strategy (run the ball) probably would have worked, given the Lions employed so many light-to-normal box fronts. It actively did work on their fourth drive which resulted in a touchdown. But what if LaFleur had leveled up again on the Lions? Since Detroit was bringing so much blitz pressure, why not attack the edges and stress their discipline with end-arounds and jet sweeps? Especially with so many new players and out-of-position players due to Detroit’s rash of front-seven injuries.

This is where LaFleur deserves criticism for not involving Jayden Reed. Reed getting only one target in the passing game is what it is. Jordan Love completed 12 of his 20 passes. There ultimately wasn’t a lot of volume in the passing game. When you have as many capable receivers as the Packers do, sometimes one or more of them isn’t going to get looks or targets in a given game. That’s the nature of the beast with this team and it’s a feature, not a bug. But when you have players like Reed and Watson, who are so good with the ball in their hands, it was inexcusable for LaFleur to not get them involved in the running game and with some easy button touches early in the game.

Of course, 11 plays does not an NFL game make. The Packers fell behind 10-0 following the Watson fumble. They would go on to eventually take the lead multiple times in the second half. When you’re playing a team as good as the Lions, you’re usually digging yourself too deep a hole when you don’t score early in the game. Last week I sang LaFleur’s praises for his record in late-season games. This loss doesn’t change the fact. The Packers failed their Level-0 test last week and it cost them any chance to win the division. They’re still capable of making a run in the playoffs. To do that, LaFleur will have to level up his level game.