As the Green Bay Packers’ GM, Brian Gutekunst has made 10 first-round picks. Upon reviewing these selections, you will find that he prefers premium athletes, especially early in the draft. So far, only three of them have been successful picks: Cornerback Jaire Alexander in 2018, Edge Rusher Rashan Gary in 2019, and Quarterback Jordan Love in 2020. Alexander was released this summer, but before his injury issues, he was one of the best corners in the league. Jordan Love played like a franchise quarterback down the stretch in 2023. He had knee and elbow injuries in 2024, but still played well for the most part. Gutekunst got a steal in Love, the 26th overall pick in 2020.
Now let’s talk about Rashan Gary. He was the #1 overall recruit in the country in the 2016 high school class and chose to play for the Michigan Wolverines. Gary never lived up to his recruiting ranking, finishing with just 10 sacks in three seasons. Despite this, he was projected to be a first-round pick in the 2019 draft based on talent alone.
Pre-Draft Measurables
It should not be shocking that Gary was the #1 overall recruit when you see his pre-draft workout. Gary’s RAS (Relative Athletic Score) was 9.95 out of 10. That means he was in the 99th percentile of all Edge rushers to work out at the combine or pro day. Gary’s 38-inch broad jump was in the 96th percentile, while his 4.58 forty-yard dash was in the 98th percentile. Add that to the fact that he is nearly 6 feet 5 inches tall, 277 pounds, with 34-inch arms.
Needless to say, Rashan Gary is an elite athlete, and Gutekunst took notice. The Packers made Gary the 12th overall pick in 2019 despite not being closely connected to the Packers in the pre-draft process. There is no doubt it was a high-risk, high-reward pick. A player with Gary’s talent should have produced more than 10 career sacks. Plus, that season, Green Bay had signed two edge rushers in free agency: Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith.
Many draft analysts trashed the pick. Some of them pointed out his lack of production and bust potential. But Gutekunst believed in Gary’s upside. A shoulder injury may have been one of the primary factors contributing to his lack of sacks. Regardless of the reason, Gary broke out in year three and has been the Packers’ best pass rusher since. Gary did have a down year in 2024. But he was learning a new scheme under defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. The Packers expect Gary to be better in 2025, going into his second year in the system.
Did the Gary pick Impact how Gutekunst drafts?
Brian Gutekunst knows he took a huge risk when he drafted Rashan Gary. He bet on the talent and the person, and it has certainly worked out. But since Gary’s breakout in the 2021 season, Gutekunst has struggled drafting in the first round. You can argue that Gutekunst might be the best drafting GM in the NFL since 2022 in rounds two through seven. Some examples are Zach Tom (4th round), Romeo Doubs (4th), Rasheed Walker (7th), Jayden Reed (2nd), Tucker Kraft (3rd), Dontayvion Wicks (5th), Karl Brooks (6th), Edgerrin Cooper (2nd) and Evan Williams (4th) But the first round has not gone well at all. Gutekunst has preferred taking athletes over consistency and production.
Cornerback Help
In 2021, Gutekunst drafted cornerback Eric Stokes from Georgia in the first round. This was the year before Gary’s breakout, but he is worth mentioning because he was a bust. Most draft analysts had Stokes as a 2nd round talent. Before the draft, there was a rumor that the Packers were targeting Minnesota wide receiver Rashod Bateman. But Bateman went two picks ahead of Stokes. It was a surprising pick to say the least. But Stokes had a RAS of 9.37 and ran a 4.31 forty. Despite a promising rookie year, Stokes had trouble staying healthy and is now on the Las Vegas Raiders.
Two First Round Picks in the 2022 Draft
Leading up to the draft, wide receiver and future Hall of Famer Davante Adams requested a trade. Gutekunst dealt Adams to the Raiders for their 1st and 2nd round picks in the 2022 draft. Many people around the league expected the Packers to use those picks to move up for a receiver like Chris Olave or Traylon Burks. The Packers chose to stand pat, and both of those players were gone by the time the Packers picked at 22 and 28 overall.
With the 22nd pick, the Packers shocked everyone in the league by selecting linebacker Quay Walker out of Georgia. This was a surprise for many reasons. Just like Gary and Stokes, Walker was an elite athlete with a RAS of 9.61. But the production on the field at Georgia did not match the athleticism. Draft analysts questioned Walker’s instincts and technique. Plus, the off-ball linebacker position has been devalued around the league. There was a rumor right before the draft that Walker would go in the first round. But no one expected that the Packers would be the team that selected him.
Interior Defensive Line Help
Defensive Tackle Devonte Wyatt was the Packers’ pick at #28 overall. Another athletic Georgia defender, Wyatt had a RAS of 9.60. While Wyatt was more consistent than Walker, his production still did not match the athleticism. Plus, he was 24 years old on draft day. Gutekunst typically targets players 22 or younger in the first round of the draft.
According to analytics, Quay Walker has been one of the worst off-ball linebackers since he came into the league. Recently, the Packers declined his 5th-year option. Gutekunst has talked about extending Walker, but based on his play, that seems unlikely. Wyatt has had more of an impact than Walker. While not a great run defender, Wyatt has shown flashes of being an elite interior pass rusher. He has been inconsistent, however. He was off to a great start in 2024 before an ankle injury cost him three games. The injury may have lingered because Wyatt did not play to that same level the rest of the season.
Lukas Van Ness
Edge Rusher Lukas Van Ness was the Packers’ first-round pick out of Iowa in 2023. Van Ness had a RAS of 9.75 and matched Gary with a 4.58 forty. However, there was concern that Van Ness did not have any elite pass-rush moves, and most of his sacks were simply because of that athleticism. Van Ness has not done much in two seasons. What makes this pick worse is that cornerback Christian Gonzalez was on the board when Van Ness was drafted. Gonzalez is one of the best young corners in the NFL, a position of need for the Green Bay Packers. This is a make-or-break year for Van Ness. The team is hoping for a Year Three breakout.
Jordan Morgan
In the 2024 draft, Gutekunst selected offensive tackle Jordan Morgan 25th overall out of Arizona. Just like Stokes, Morgan was a surprise, with most people expecting him to be a 2nd round pick. Just like Walker and Wyatt, Morgan was talented but inconsistent. He had some games where he looked like a first-round pick (UCLA game vs Laiatu Latu) and games where he looked anything but (Washington game vs Bralen Trice).
Plus, Morgan’s arm length is less than 33 inches, which is not ideal for a left tackle. Morgan mostly played guard in his injury-plagued rookie season. He is expected to compete with Rasheed Walker at left tackle in camp. More than likely, Morgan will be the team’s swing tackle this season.
Conclusion
Since 2021, Brian Gutekunst has struggled with his first-round picks. All of them have been elite athletes, yet none of them have lived up to their draft selection. If you want to know why the Lions have won the division the past two seasons, just look at their first-round picks compared to the Packers. From 2021-2023, the Lions used first-round picks on right tackle Penei Sewell, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, wide receiver Jameson Williams, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and linebacker Jack Campbell. You can argue that every single one of those players has made more of an impact than Stokes, Walker, Wyatt, and Van Ness.
Brian Gutekunst seems to focus on athletes with his first-round picks and not football players. I call it the “Rashan Gary Effect.” Since Gary developed into a good player, he believes the Packers’ coaching staff can get the most out of the talent he gives them. Gutekunst likes taking players with a high ceiling rather than a high floor. The Packers are a good team. No doubt about it. But are they a great team? Probably not. And to me, the main reason is the fact that they keep missing on their first-round picks.
Any of those players could have a breakout 2025 season. If one or more do, it could lead to a contract extension for Gutekunst. Wide receiver Matthew Golden, the Packers’ first-round pick in 2025, has become a really important selection. He cannot afford to miss on another first-rounder. The buzz out of training camp suggests he will be Gutekunst’s best first-round pick since Jordan Love in 2020. If he can start hitting on those valuable first-round picks, this team should go from good to great.
