In what was a truly electric moment, the Packers drafted a first round wide receiver for the first time in 23 years this Spring. This ended what was by far the longest streak without one in the NFL. This means that many younger Packer fans have quite literally never experienced life with a rookie wideout on the team before. For this reason I find it necessary to not only acclimate ourselves with Matthew Golden the player, but also what it’s like to actually have a first round wideout on the team.
Personally, I’ve been high on Matthew Golden since well before the Packers drafted him. Golden’s 2024 Texas film is frankly elite. He’s got incredibly strong hands, elite speed, was successful vs. man and zone coverages, and has the movement skills/body control to become a great separator in the NFL. The way he moves and runs routes reminds me so much of young Greg Jennings. While he might not have the size to put the whole team on his back, he is a smooth mover who is easily able to snap off his routes with quick changes of direction. What reminds me the most of Jennings is his ability to operate in control while at full speed. He doesn’t have to slow down to catch the ball or to make a cut, and this controlled speed is what makes Golden such a tough cover.
While I spent plenty of time this year studying Golden the player, I still had been feeling unsure of what to expect from him this season as far as stats go. Most of this stemmed from my inexperience with rookie receivers on my team. So, I decided to study the recent history of these players, and as part of this exercise, I went back and charted the rookie year statistics for every WR drafted in the second half of round 1(picks 16-32) since 2020. Here’s the list of the 14 receivers drafted in that range from 2020-2024:
- Ceedee Lamb (Dallas)
- Jalen Reagor (Philadelphia)
- Justin Jefferson (Minnesota)
- Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco)
- Kadarius Toney (New York Giants)
- Rashod Bateman (Baltimore)
- Treylon Burks (Tennessee)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle)
- Quentin Johnston (LA Chargers)
- Zay Flowers (Baltimore)
- Jordan Addison (Minnesota)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville)
- Xavier Worthy (Kansas City)
- Ricky Pearsall (San Francisco)
- Xavier Legette (Carolina)
This is an instructive list for Packers fans. There’s a few players here who are clear cut stars, a few who are absolute busts and a lot who are somewhere in between. So, as part of this exercise I grouped these players into 1 of 3 different buckets. Stars, hits and busts. Stars are the types of guys who blow their expectations out of the water, immediately become their team’s WR1 and contend for OROY honors. These are the guys you want to have on your fantasy team. Hits are the guys who look like quality NFL players out the gate and often start out being a good WR2 or 3 while showing potential to grow into something more than that if things break right. Busts on the other hand are pretty self explanatory, these are the guys that frequently get their GM’s fired.
After putting these players into their “buckets” I averaged their stat lines from their rookie season totals. I found this to be useful as we try to build expectations for what Matthew Golden’s stats may be in his rookie season.
Stars: averaged 1,206 receiving yards and 7 TDs as rookies
- Justin Jefferson
- Ceedee Lamb
- Brian Thomas Jr.
Hits: averaged 732 receiving yards and 5 TDs as rookies
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Rashod Bateman
- Zay Flowers
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Jordan Addison
Busts: averaged 423 receiving yards and 1 TD as rookies
- Quentin Johnston
- Jalen Reagor
- Kadarius Toney
- Treylon Burks
Note: Worthy, Legette and Pearsall were excluded from grouping since it’s really too soon to tell for them.
From what I’ve seen, lots of Packers fans are penciling Golden to be a 1,000 yard receiver as a rookie. And to be honest, I totally get it. I too am so excited about Golden as a player, and the early reports out of training camp have been highly encouraging. But, having done this research I now realize only 2 of these 14 WRs ever eclipsed 1,000 yards in their rookie season. It just doesn’t happen often, and that will likely be especially true for a guy like Golden who is dealing with a crowded WR room.
Trying to put statistical expectations into context it’s important to remember a couple things. First, the Packers are one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL on early downs. I wouldn’t expect that to change after the team invested even more run blocking beef into their O-line this offseason. Also, I’d expect the Packers to bring Golden along a bit more slowly and make him earn his snaps in the early portions of the season. If those early snaps go well then it may be wheels up for Golden, but the team will still have 4-5 other wideouts worthy of snaps as well. The combination of competition at the position and playcalling tendencies of Lafleur will likely make it difficult for Golden to accumulate stats on par with guys like Brian Thomas Jr or Ceedee Lamb.
My prediction: Golden fits pretty snugly into that “hits” bucket. He’s simply too good and has too much aura to be a bust, but the factors we discussed earlier will likely hold him back from star level production. To me, this would constitute a successful season for Golden, but it wouldn’t hold him back from progressing into a star sometime in the future. Overall, all signs point towards Golden being a great player for the Packers no matter the stats. In the end, I have a feeling he’s going to make the 23 year drought well worth the wait.
