That’s not to say the Green Bay Packers can’t be good after the bye week — but over the past ten years, it’s been more bad than good.
If this troubling trend continues, the Packers might not want to look past the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals.
Even though trap games are usually road games, and this one’s at Lambeau, I’m officially upgrading Packers vs. Bengals to Trap Game Watch status. There could be an upset.
This all comes back to one thing: the trends the Packers have set over the past decade.
So, What Trends Are We Talking About?
Over the last ten seasons, the Packers have a 4–6 record in games immediately following their bye week. And honestly, it should probably be 3–7, if not for one miraculous play involving Karl Brooks’ fingertip.
In 2015, after starting 6–0, the Packers went to Denver and were absolutely shellacked by the Broncos. In 2016, they had an early Week 4 bye, and in Week 5, barely squeaked past the Giants in a one-possession game. They weren’t so lucky the next season, when they had a perfectly timed Week 8 bye—only to lose at home to the Lions.
It didn’t get much better in 2018, when they lost a tight one to the high-powered Rams by two points. Then in 2019, they got crushed 37–8 by the 49ers in San Francisco.
Matt LaFleur couldn’t get his first post-bye win the next season either, as the Packers were wrecked by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 38–10.
Packers Turnaround
Finally, LaFleur broke the streak with a win over the Bears at Lambeau, 45–30. But even then, his defenses allowed an average of 35 points per game in his first three post-bye contests — not exactly ideal.
The following year, they beat the Rams after a late-season bye. But in 2023, they lost to the Broncos for the second time in this ten-year stretch. And in 2024, the Packers barely escaped with an away win against the Bears — thanks once again to just a finger.
Packers Points After Bye Weeks
Given the record, it’s no surprise the offense hasn’t produced much after bye weeks. Since 2015, the Packers have averaged 20.1 points per game in those matchups. If you remove the 45-point outlier against the Bears in 2021, that number drops to 17.3 points per game.
Defensively, it’s been even worse. The Packers’ defense has allowed 25.9 points per game following bye weeks over that same stretch.
Early Season Bye Weeks
When you narrow it down to early bye weeks (Week 8 or earlier), things look downright ugly. Out of six early-bye games in the past decade, Green Bay has a 1–5 record, with their only win coming against the Giants in 2016.
In those games, the offense averaged 17.3 points per game, while the defense allowed 26.8 points per game. Not good at all.
This year’s bye week falls in Week 5 — another early one.
Looking Ahead
To be fair, the Packers did need this early bye, especially with all the injuries piling up. But Matt LaFleur must ensure his team stays sharp and doesn’t look past Cincinnati in Week 6. Otherwise, history could repeat itself.
And as always—
Go Pack Go!
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Damon is a diehard, fully-immersed cheesehead who currently lives in southern Missouri. He teaches at a local high school and has a family YouTube channel about all things Packers. You can follow him on twitter at @packersfamily and on YouTube at The Packers Family.
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