There has been no shortage of frustration throughout Wisconsin in the last few weeks. Much of that, understandably so, has been directed squarely at Matt Lafleur. This team finally went all in over the offseason. They spent big in free agency, drafted a WR in the first round and sent out multiple first round picks to bring in a blue chip player. This team should be poised to go out and take the league by storm. But they just aren’t doing that. Lafleur seems to have the Green Bay Packers trying to win each game by 3 points instead of trying to win by 30, and it is getting rather frustrating.
Obviously the team is still good, and we have much to be grateful for. However, the expectations for this team were and are immense. For that reason they can’t settle for just good enough. It’s necessary to figure out why this team isn’t playing like an elite unit, and to make the necessary changes.
On Sunday, the Panthers executed their defensive gameplan to perfection. They kept things in front of them, tackled well and took away all sorts of explosives. One other thing stuck out to me. Carolina wasn’t dedicated to stopping the Green Bay Packers run game.
Carolina sat back, played two high coverages and rarely brought an extra safety into the box on run downs. They simply refused to give Jordan Love any favorable looks to throw deep against. At least from what my eyes were telling me.
This forces Love to consistently operate in the quick passing game. It’s something Love can do when he needs to, but we all know that Jordan would rather sit back and hunt explosives down the field. Simply put, defensive coordinators have figured out Lafleur, Love and their offensive plan of attack. Evolution is necessary for survival at this point, especially with a gnarly matchup against Vic Fangio and the Eagles upcoming.
To me, the biggest problem has been the offensive line, and I think this manifests with two different notable stats. Let’s look into both of them.
Josh Jacobs is getting hit behind the line of scrimmage on 45% of his carries and is averaging just 0.7 yards before contact per carry. Both would be career worsts for him if these numbers hold.
This is truly one stat that the Green Bay Packers should be embarrassed by. Jacob’s run blocking has been worse this year than anything he experienced with the Raiders, and that is just sad to say.
Lafleur has nonetheless clearly been committed to establishing the run. His playcalling on early downs indicates that more than anything. As a fan it has been pretty tough to watch at times. The unsuccessful run plays on 2nd and longs are getting old quickly.
It’s annoying to watch Lafleur and the offense continue to bang their heads into a wall with their poor run game, but if you dig deeper it becomes clear why they continue to do it. As I noted earlier, the Panthers were showing light boxes and favorable looks in the run game all day long. The Packers were unable to run the ball well enough to get the Panthers out of those formations and that made life harder for Love and the passing game.
This stat found by Benjamin Solak of ESPN is super interesting to me, but I think it could be slightly misleading. Cleveland and Carolina were both huge underdogs that ended up beating the Green Bay Packers. But I think they have more in common than just their status as underdogs.
Both teams executed similar game plans against the Packers on defense. They were both able to stop the run with light boxes, and this allowed them to devote an extra safety back deep in coverage. Neither team gave up explosive plays deep and they forced the Packers to successfully execute long mistake free drives. In short, both teams executed a gameplan that would make Joe Barry envious, and they forced Lafleur to play conservative against an inferior opponent.
This is the other stat that jumps out to me. These splits for Love have become a trend throughout his career. He does need to be more effective when under pressure, but at this point most of the onus is going to fall on the offensive line to give him clean pockets.
So, the question becomes whether or not we feel the offensive line is going to be able to improve noticeably enough to make a difference. To be honest, I am not too incredibly hopeful. The personnel on the line has been poor enough consistently now that I struggle to see them making much improvement midseason.
I don’t have much trust in the offensive line, but I do think there is someone we can put our faith in and that is Coach Lafleur. I know that this is an unpopular opinion at this point, but let’s not forget that he is one of the most adaptable game planners in the league. He has won with so many different iterations of this team, and that is his calling card as a coach. In my opinion, the best coaches don’t have a set system, but they adapt their system to what their team is at any given time.
This is what Lafleur’s task will be going forward. They just lost the best pass catcher for the year in Tucker Kraft and they now replace him with a totally different player in Luke Musgrave. The offensive line can’t run block to save their lives, and his quarterback isn’t playing well when pressured. This is the challenge for Matt Lafleur. He’s got an offense with real tangible weaknesses and he needs to get them scoring at an elite level. The expectations are maybe unreasonably high, but this is why he gets paid the big bucks.
