In a salary cap league like the NFL, every dollar spent matters. Even just one or two bad contracts can sink an entire franchise to a point of no return. Just ask the Cleveland Browns. Now obviously, the Green Bay Packers have not had any recent contracts that returned negative value quite to that extent. But when you really investigate, the Packers have had their fair share of ill-fated contracts in the last decade. See David Bakthiari, Aaron Banks, Kenny Clark’s 3rd deal, and Devondre Campbell as just semi-recent examples. So, my purpose today is to look into the most recent deals handed out by Green Bay. How do the Jayden Reed and Christian Watson deals shake out when you really dig into the specifics, and do I see a risk that these deals will age poorly?
Let’s start with Jayden Reed.
First off, it is incredibly easy to forget just how good Reed was before breaking his collarbone early this year. Here’s Reed’s per season averages from his first 2 years in Green Bay:
- 60 Receptions
- 825 Receiving Yards
- 7TDs
These numbers set franchise records for productivity from a Packers receiver in his first two seasons. Keep in mind these numbers came in one of the most time-shared receiver rooms in the league. Green Bay Packer fans quickly forget, but I thought Reed looked like the clear top receiver in 2023-2024.
So what does the Reed contract actually look like for Green Bay?
Reed signed a 3 year deal that could pay him 50.3 million if he gets the full terms. That puts his average per year at just under 17 million per year, and makes him the 31st highest paid WR in the NFL for this upcoming season.
Reed will get paid less than each of the following receivers:
- – Wandale Robinson
- – Rashid Shaheed
- – Romeo Doubs
- – Jerry Jeudy
- – Cooper Kupp
I think it’s pretty clear that Jayden Reed is a better receiver than each of the guys on this list. Most especially once age is taken into account.
Now hopefully this doesn’t happen, but let’s say we see a major downturn in production from Jayden Reed. Could the Packers get out of this contract semi-easily?
The answer to that question is unequivocally yes. The Green Bay Packers only guaranteed 20 million dollars’ worth of money on this deal. Simply put, I cannot believe they got away with that. That is pure highway robbery for a player of Jayden Reed’s caliber.
The Packers owe Reed 21 million dollars of cash flow in 2026, and almost all of that is due to his signing bonus from this contract. That bonus will be divided up across the life of the deal so it doesn’t all count against the cap at once. That is pretty standard operating procedure for NFL deals like this. Here is the crazy part though. The Green Bay Packers only owe Jayden Reed a little north of 5 million in cash in 2027.
That means that if Jayden Reed does experience a significant downturn in 2026, or God forbid, a major injury, then the Packers could get off this deal without costing themselves much more than what they’ve already paid him. But, with a cash flow number that low, it is extremely likely that Reed just remains on the team in 2027.
Look on the brighter side of Reed’s range of outcomes, and this deal only looks that much better. For starters, I’d bet good money that stats wise Reed has the best year of his young career in 2026. The targets in Green Bay are now set to be funneled to the premier guys in a way they haven’t been yet in the Jordan Love era. Reed, Kraft, Watson and Golden all stand to benefit immensely from that.
A healthy Jayden Reed could easily threaten 80+ catches, 1K yards and 10TD’s on a yearly basis. If that happens, getting him for WR31 money is an absolute steal. Gutey gets an A+ grade on this contract.
Next up is Christian Watson.
CW is a polarizing player. All the efficiency metrics and advanced numbers point to him being a borderline elite player, but he’s been injured often, and doesn’t have the counting stats to back up his efficiency numbers. A lot of it comes down to what you choose to put stock into.
Let’s look at the bright side first. Watson was the 8th highest rated WR according to PFF last season, and he turned in 2.28 yards per route run figure in 2025. That was good for 9th best in the NFL. Watson also had the 3rd deepest average depth of target in the NFL, at 17.4 yards per target. With a QB who thrives when pushing the ball deep down the field, a proven downfield threat like Christian Watson becomes even more important.
On the downside, Watson has had an ACL tear, multiple hamstring injuries, has never completed a full season healthy and has yet to eclipse 700 receiving yards in a season. All this to say, I totally understand if you don’t fully support Christian Watson as a second contract guy. It at least kind of makes sense to me.
That being said though, I still feel that locking up Watson long term was 100% the right move. He played out of his mind during the back half of last season after working so hard to get healthy.
This is also just a WR archetype that wins at the NFL level. He’s a 6’5” strong bodied guy who can win at the catch point, burn defenses deep, run after the catch, play from outside and from the slot, has evolved into a guy who can run the full route tree and he’s really grown into his hands. Those players don’t grow on trees, and I’m very glad the Green Bay Packers paid up when the time came.
Now let’s look at the contract. Christian Watson’s deal was initially reported as a 4 year deal worth 110 million. While even that deal is somewhat reasonable for the high end of Watson, what the deal structure actually looks like is much more favorable.
Watson’s full terms actually end up being a 5 year deal with last season’s short term extension included, and gives the Green Bay Packers team control until after the 2030 season. That’s one of my favorite things about this contract, the length of the deal. Watson is worth this money in today’s WR market, but imagine how much a receiver like him will be worth in 2030. Who knows, that far out the price could approach 50M per year!
The structure of this deal is very similar to Reed’s deal. Watson has 34 million in cash coming his way in 2026 that is fully guaranteed. That is almost all signing bonus money that will be pro-rated throughout the life of the deal. Then Watson is due only 4.1 in cash in 2027. This is as big of a “1 year and we’ll see” type of deal as I’ve ever seen.
Then, say Watson plays well in ‘26 and ‘27, which I fully expect him to, then he is under team control for about 20 million dollars in cash flow each of the next 3 years. That is already a steal, but like I said earlier, just give the market 3 years to inflate and it only gets better.
This part is purely vibes based analysis, but I really think Christian Watson is one of the very most important players on the Green Bay Packers offense. If you could calculate a +/- type stat for offensive players in the NFL like they do for NBA players, then I’d bet Watson ranks near the top. What he does just makes the Packers offense go.
It’s hard to overstate how important these deals were for the Packers. Like I said earlier, every dollar counts in the NFL and I think the team made the most of these dollars by locking up Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.
