Packers Therapy #272: Washington Folds Like a House of Cards

Packers Therapy Podcast

Food tastes better and the air smells cleaner when the Packers win — especially in the post-season. Best of all, defeating the Washington Professional Football team didn’t require Frank Underwood to push anyone in front of a Metro train, although Aaron Rodgers was, at times, equally deadly. The win gives Chris and Dave hope again, not to the point where the guys think Green Bay can beat the Cardinals in the desert, but the fellas found a lot to like about the last three quarters of the Wild Card win.

——————-

Posting its first show in 2005, Packers Therapy is the longest-running Packers podcast on the Internet. Hosts Chris and Dave began the show as a way of capturing the spirited chats the two co-workers had about the team around the office. The two have no pretense about being experts: they are just two opinionated shareholders who love the team, follow it closely, but don’t always see the Packers fortunes eye to eye.

The guys encourage comments and questions via their Twitter feed @PackersTherapy and read and respond to as many as they can during each show. Or you can sent them an email to packerstherapy at packerstalk.com

Packers Therapy is a part of the Packers Talk, family of podcasts, serving up enough weekly podcasts to satisfy the most fervent of Packer fans. Follow Packers Talk on TwitterFacebook, and subscribe over at iTunes.

——————

Follow Packers Talk Radio Network:

——————

Share
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

One thought on “Packers Therapy #272: Washington Folds Like a House of Cards

  1. Situation: Packers 10, Washington 11. 2:54 left in the 1st half. Washington has the ball at their own 20.

    The Packers have two options if they want to try to get the ball back to score again. They can keep their TOs, or use them now. Clock Management Guy wanted to save them. MM decided to use them right away, much to the praise of his Results Oriented progenitor.

    Use TOs now

    2:54, 1st and 10 from WAS 20. Alfred Morris middle for 3 yards (tackle by Letroy Guion and Jake Ryan)

    2:43 TO #2 Packers.

    2:43, 2nd and 7 from WAS 23. Kirk Cousins pass complete short middle to Jamison Crowder for 5 yards (tackle by Joe Thomas).

    2:38 TO #3 Packers.

    2:38 3rd and 2 from WAS 28. Kirk Cousins pass incomplete short left intended for Jamison Crowder (defended by Quinten Rollins)

    2:34 PUNT returned for 17. Packers start drive with 2:22 and 0 TO from own 40.

    And this is how the exact same defensive sequence would have played out without using the TOs right away:

    Save TOs

    2:54, 1st and 10 from WAS 20. Alfred Morris middle for 3 yards (tackle by Letroy Guion and Jake Ryan)

    2:04, 2nd and 7 from WAS 23. Kirk Cousins pass complete short middle to Jamison Crowder for 5 yards (tackle by Joe Thomas).

    2:00 minute warning.

    2:00 3rd and 2 from WAS 28. Kirk Cousins pass incomplete short left intended for Jamison Crowder (defended by Quinten Rollins)

    1:56 PUNT returned for 17. Packers start drive with 1:44 and 2 TOs from own 40.

    This result is just as good (arguably better) for the offense – plenty of time to score even if they had been pinned deeper (1:44) but they still have the discretion of when to use two clock stoppages. With less time on the clock they also hedge against scoring “too quickly” on an early play in the drive and letting the Chiefs get the ball back with more time for a final response score.

    But the real reason it’s better to save the timeouts isn’t because of this arguably slightly better situation where the game plays out the same and the Packers get a defensive stop- it’s what happens if the Packers defense had failed instead:

    Hypothetical: Use TOs, don’t get defensive stop

    2:38 3rd and 2 from WAS 28. Kirk Cousins pass complete short left for Jamison Crowder

    Now the Redskins have the ball at their own ~33 with ~2:30 and 3 TOs left. Plenty of time to string together a drive, including the option to run the ball a few times.

    If they want to instead, the Redskins could even choose to simply run the clock down instead since the Packers have no TO (1st down gets to 2min, 2nd down gets to 1:15, 3rd down gets to 0:30. After a punt the Packers get the ball in the middle of their own territory with ~0:25 left and no TO- not a recipe for success for an offense that can’t throw downfield.

    Hypothetical: Don’t use TOs, don’t get defensive stop

    2:00 3rd and 2 from WAS 28. Kirk Cousins pass complete short left for Jamison Crowder

    The clock is running down from 1:55 and the Washington Football Team has 3 TOs they have to decide if they want to start using now to try to drive to score, or whether they want to run a play.

    In either case, this is a much better scenario or the Packers. The Redskins have :40 fewer second and no 2 minute warning. If WAS decide to call a TO now then the Packers have the option to stop the clock on 2nd and 3rd down (after bad plays by the Redskins) and can still get the ball back for a final drive to end the half. If WAS throws incomplete on first down same thing. If WAS runs a few successful plays in a row netting another 1st down near midfield then they have much less time to work with for a successful drive.

    Conclusion

    Using TOs right away wasn’t a brilliant move by MM. It ended up working because the defense got the stop, but it didn’t work any better than not using TOs would have. It opened the team up to a worse result if the defense didn’t get the stop.

    MM’s approach wasn’t better because it “put faith in the defense”. Not using the TOs put just as much faith in the defense, but would have left the Packers in a better tactical position in both scenarios.

Comments are closed.