In 2010 the Packers turned a corner in a loss to Atlanta. The Packers charged back, tied the game on a late Rodgers touchdown and then gave up a long kick return and ultimately lost. The confidence the Packers gained in that game willed them through the rest of the season, and led them to a domination of the Falcons in the playoffs.
This is a Packers team that needed some confidence. They are beat up, and they have been beaten down. The Cowboys dominated the Packers in the second half of their game at Lambeau Field, which isn’t something that’s supposed to happen. Not to the Packers, not in Wisconsin.
The Bulls are getting healthy, and they have a chance in the next two games to right the ship against teams from the AFC South that are struggling mightily. It starts on Sunday.
Why the Packers Will Win: they’re the better team. Green Bay ranks inside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA. The Colts are pretty average offensively and one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Green Bay seems to be getting healthier, and they probably didn’t need to to beat Indianapolis at home.
Indianapolis continues to struggle on the offensive line, and they might be without TY Hilton. The way Green Bay has had to defend teams without any healthy cornerbacks has been with pressure. They didn’t get pressure on Atlanta, they will on Andrew Luck.
Indianapolis is 29th in DVOA in both pass defense and run defense. As Rodgers continues the resurrection of the offense, this game should help things.
Why the Colts Will Win: Because the Packers are still pretty beat up. Quentin Rollins may or may not play. Jared Cook, JC Tretter and James Starks are all out on offense. I wouldn’t expect to see Randall Cobb either. The defense is still missing Damarious Randall and Sam Shields.
The Packers are a deep team, Ted Thompson makes sure of that, but it would be nice to see them play at closer to 85 or 90% instead of closer to 65/70.
Bottom Line: The Packers are starting to get healthy, and need to get healthy record-wise. The Packers would certainly like to be 6-3 heading in to that playoff rematch with Washington on the 20th of November. It’s going to be important for Green Bay to have 5 or fewer losses when they start their three game stretch of division games to finish the year.
Green Bay top to bottom is a better team than Indianapolis, and they need to win this home game if they’re going to be taken seriously this season. Last week’s short handed effort at Atlanta was certainly promising, but it doesn’t mean anything if they can’t make a serious run at the division. Minnesota is starting to show their warts, it’s time for the Packers to take advantage. Packers 30 Colts 17