The Anatomy of a Pass and Playoffs

The 2019-2020 NFL Playoffs have begun and I’m sitting here watching Texans vs Bills. The recent play by the Texan’s offense lends perfectly to my discussion. Texans QB Deshaun Watson over threw a wide open WR down field, I guess he’s a washed up bum to many of you Packer fans. The very next play was a WR DeAndre Hopkins reception and in the process of turning up field he was stripped of the ball, resulting in a turnover. Therefore he’s a bum too according to Packers’ fans. I’m interested in some commentary to explain the difference to me between Rodgers and his WRs and the Texans.

There a three components to a pass play which are required for a completion. First, the Receiver’s Route; Second, the QB throw and Third, the Receiver completing the catch. By my count that’s 33% on the QB and 66% on the Receiver. Why then do fans blame 100% of a failed reception on the QB, when he is only responsible for 33%? I think fans give too much credit to the QB on a successful play and also too much blame on a failed play. I have also noticed fans move the finish line when determining success by a player. Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz is said to be having a stellar season: 4,039 yds, 27 TDs, 7 INTs, 63.9% Comp, 93.1 Rating; while the Packer’s Aaron Rodgers is being criticized for having an “off” season: 4,002 yds, 26 TDs, 4 INTs, 62%, 95.4 Rating. That just doesn’t seem right to me or make any sense. I’d like to know how the fans determine the difference.

Another interesting fact as a result of all these playoff predictions are the so called NFL scouts, rating Aaron Rodgers as the 8-10th best QB in the playoffs (out of 12) while the odds makers have the Packers with the fifth best chance of winning the Super Bowl. Those are definitely conflicting propositions. Once again folks are using indirect interpretation of the data to make direct comparisons. I tend to agree with Aaron Rodgers response to these predictions, “I don’t care,” and “We are two games away from the Super Bowl and one game is at Lambeau.” For the Packers, it’s the W’s that count and all 13 of them equally.

Matt LaFleur will have his offense and Mike Pettine’s defense self scout and review successful plays this week. He will then meet with his position coaches and team leaders to review potential opponents. By Sunday Night the Packers’ opponent for January 12th will be determined and LaFleur will assemble his game plan. It will be one of three opponents, Seattle SeaHawks, Philadelphia Eagles, or New Orleans Saints. Personally I don’t care who the Packers play. We will see a very competitive game out of the Packers, who will play with a new found energy. Let’s get behind our team, enjoy the ride the Packer’s have taken us on and remember no one gave them a chance in August.

As Always, Go Pack Go!!

PackerGreg

PackerGreg Veteran/Go Army @DrGTP on Twitter
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