Jordan Love became eligible to sign a contract extension with the Packers on May 3rd. Considering he finished 2023 as a top-10 QB and the current market, it’s fair to argue how his contract will shape up.
Love was a top-10 QB in passing yards, TDs, PFF passing grade, and big-time throws. Moreover, he ranked top 5 in BTT under pressure and had the most BTT when blitzed. Furthermore, Love led youngest NFL team since the 1970s to the playoffs.
Additionally, he had 18 turnover-worthy plays last year (regular season and playoffs combined). Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen had more TWPs than him in this timeframe. Love had 37 big-time throws in the same span, tying for 3rd best.
On Monday, the Detroit Lions and Jared Goff finalized a deal on a 4-year, $212 million extension with $170 million guaranteed. Love recorded more touchdowns and big throws while matching the number of turnover-worthy plays. Both quarterbacks passed for over 4000 yards and had nearly identical passing and offensive PFF grades. In short, Love had comparable production to Goff despite having an inferior supporting cast.
How could Green Bay structure Love’s extension?
With Goff’s extension, there are now five quarterbacks with an annual average salary (APY) over $50 million: Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Goff himself. With the market continuously expanding, Love should be poised to become the sixth quarterback to reach that mark.
The Packers will probably offer Love around $55-57 million average per year. However, I prefer the contract to span six years. A longer deal gives Brian Gutekunst flexibility with the cap, enabling him to adjust finances as necessary. This would also lock up Love’s services until his early thirties, covering a significant portion of his prime years.
I reached out to a few people I deeply respect to get their take on how Love’s contract negotiations might unfold, and this is what they had to say:
Wendell Ferreira, who covers the Packers and the NFL for AtoZSports, predicts a hefty salary for Love, around $55 million per year. “The priority for the Packers now is structuring the deal. Ideally, they’d secure a six-year extension through 2031. This would allow them to manage money without facing significant cap hits or losing negotiation leverage. The salary cap could increase by over $20 million annually, so a longer deal is advantageous. Love deserves a big contract, but the structure will determine the Packers’ roster strength.”
Daire Carragher, who covers the Packers for 247Sports and the Packer Report, believes that Goff’s extension makes things interesting. “I would have initially predicted Love’s contract to land somewhere between Kyler Murray’s $46 million per year and Jalen Hurts’ $51 million per year. However, with Goff signing for $53 million per year at 29 years old, it’s difficult to picture a world where Love signs for anything less.”
“It’s worth noting that the Packers can front-load some of Love’s contract in the 2024 season if they wish. This could be useful in later years when they need additional space to re-sign promising second-year players like Reed, Wicks, Musgrave, Kraft, etc.” – he added.
Ricardo Gonçalves is the best Brazilian draft analyst in the country. According to him, a good way to view the current contract situation between the Packers and Love is to look at the past. Historically, the Packers manage these situations in a specific way, similar to Aaron Rodgers’ first contract renewal.
“Both QBs had similar performances at this point in their careers, despite different contexts. The Packers made Rodgers one of the top 4 or 5 highest-paid QBs in the league at the time. It seems natural that the team would consider something similar for Jordan Love. However, Love’s case is stronger due to even more success in his debut season as a starter.”
He continued, “Time is another ally for the player. The need to reach an agreement grows each day. Other players signing new deals can also impact the situation. Jared Goff’s massive new contract with the Lions is an example. It wouldn’t surprise me if Love’s agents push to make him the highest-paid player in the league. They might even aim for him to be the first to earn $60 million annually. However, I believe the deal will be around $56/57 million per year.”
Reaching an agreement before training camp is ideal for the Packers and Love. However, both sides seem far from a deal, according to reports. Jordan Love will earn top 5 QB money. The question is how Green Bay will structure the contract length and guarantees.
1 response to “How Can the Packers Structure Jordan Love’s Contract Extension?”
I don't know all the possibilities involved in contracts, but I would like to see a contract that is backloaded with a large total contract with guarantees that eclipse other quarterbacks in the league. I believe Tom Brady took a lower contract in his latter years and the Bucs won a Super Bowl one of those years. If Jordan went with a cap friendly number so the Packers have the money to improve the roster (which probably won't effect signings this year) in the near term, but the Packers offer him a total contract that is largely guaranteed and pays him an average annual salary that is first in the league. I would like to see Jordan and the Packers agree to renegotiate the contract each year that the Packers field a Super Bowl team. In other words, if the Packers successfully put together the talent throughout the team, including coaches, to win a Super Bowl, then Jordan Love will play with a salary that is lower than the highest paid quarterbacks in the league. I think Jordan should wait to sign a contract after Tua inks his contract. For example, if Jordan signs a three year extension ('24-'27), pay him an average of 70M a year, but pay him 30M this year and push 40M into the last three years on a guaranteed contract. I know there are many things the GM can probably do to lower the impact on the salary cap, but Jordan could help if he values a successful career. Successful as in Super Bowl wins. He should remember that Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers each have one Super Bowl win in their careers with Green Bay. I think if the decision makers in the front office had more incentive to win, they might be able to assemble a team that is more successful than past teams. Of course, they would need a head coach and coordinator that don't choke in the big games. It's really painful watching the Packers make it to the playoffs and the coaches make these weak strategy decisions which lose the game. You know like kicking a field goal when you need a TD. They might be able to score in three downs if they had better play calling. How about replacing their starters with several minutes left in the game and running a passive defense that allows the team they are clobbering to score two TDs in short order. Then in the following week, lose the lead in the final few minutes of the game. If they want to win, they have to play to win, not to slow down their opponent. Shouldn't stop 'til the game is over. With a talented offense, the Packers should be able to bury some of their opponents, but they fail. Their defense under performs because all those first round defenders they selected are not talented enough to be first rounders. First round picks should be special, like Jaire Alexander or Clay Matthews. Where is their speed up front on the defensive line going to be. They'll have to bring a linebacker or a safety to generate a rush. Push the rest of the teams in the league to pay their QBs by guaranteeing the highest contract which is backloaded.