Jordan Love became eligible to sign a contract extension with the Packers on May 3rd. Considering he finished 2023 as a top-10 QB and the current market, it’s fair to argue how his contract will shape up.

Love was a top-10 QB in passing yards, TDs, PFF passing grade, and big-time throws. Moreover, he ranked top 5 in BTT under pressure and had the most BTT when blitzed. Furthermore, Love led youngest NFL team since the 1970s to the playoffs.

Additionally, he had 18 turnover-worthy plays last year (regular season and playoffs combined). Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen had more TWPs than him in this timeframe. Love had 37 big-time throws in the same span, tying for 3rd best.

On Monday, the Detroit Lions and Jared Goff finalized a deal on a 4-year, $212 million extension with $170 million guaranteed. Love recorded more touchdowns and big throws while matching the number of turnover-worthy plays. Both quarterbacks passed for over 4000 yards and had nearly identical passing and offensive PFF grades. In short, Love had comparable production to Goff despite having an inferior supporting cast.

How could Green Bay structure Love’s extension?

With Goff’s extension, there are now five quarterbacks with an annual average salary (APY) over $50 million: Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Goff himself. With the market continuously expanding, Love should be poised to become the sixth quarterback to reach that mark.

The Packers will probably offer Love around $55-57 million average per year. However, I prefer the contract to span six years. A longer deal gives Brian Gutekunst flexibility with the cap, enabling him to adjust finances as necessary. This would also lock up Love’s services until his early thirties, covering a significant portion of his prime years.

I reached out to a few people I deeply respect to get their take on how Love’s contract negotiations might unfold, and this is what they had to say:

Wendell Ferreira, who covers the Packers and the NFL for AtoZSports, predicts a hefty salary for Love, around $55 million per year. “The priority for the Packers now is structuring the deal. Ideally, they’d secure a six-year extension through 2031. This would allow them to manage money without facing significant cap hits or losing negotiation leverage. The salary cap could increase by over $20 million annually, so a longer deal is advantageous. Love deserves a big contract, but the structure will determine the Packers’ roster strength.”

Daire Carragher, who covers the Packers for 247Sports and the Packer Report, believes that Goff’s extension makes things interesting. “I would have initially predicted Love’s contract to land somewhere between Kyler Murray’s $46 million per year and Jalen Hurts’ $51 million per year. However, with Goff signing for $53 million per year at 29 years old, it’s difficult to picture a world where Love signs for anything less.”

“It’s worth noting that the Packers can front-load some of Love’s contract in the 2024 season if they wish. This could be useful in later years when they need additional space to re-sign promising second-year players like Reed, Wicks, Musgrave, Kraft, etc.” – he added.

Ricardo Gonçalves is the best Brazilian draft analyst in the country. According to him, a good way to view the current contract situation between the Packers and Love is to look at the past. Historically, the Packers manage these situations in a specific way, similar to Aaron Rodgers’ first contract renewal.

“Both QBs had similar performances at this point in their careers, despite different contexts. The Packers made Rodgers one of the top 4 or 5 highest-paid QBs in the league at the time. It seems natural that the team would consider something similar for Jordan Love. However, Love’s case is stronger due to even more success in his debut season as a starter.”

He continued, “Time is another ally for the player. The need to reach an agreement grows each day. Other players signing new deals can also impact the situation. Jared Goff’s massive new contract with the Lions is an example. It wouldn’t surprise me if Love’s agents push to make him the highest-paid player in the league. They might even aim for him to be the first to earn $60 million annually. However, I believe the deal will be around $56/57 million per year.”

Reaching an agreement before training camp is ideal for the Packers and Love. However, both sides seem far from a deal, according to reports. Jordan Love will earn top 5 QB money. The question is how Green Bay will structure the contract length and guarantees.