The Green Bay Packers are 6-3 after their bye week, with eight games left. They’ll face the Chicago Bears twice, plus the 49ers, Dolphins, Seahawks, Saints, Vikings, and Lions.
By Week 11, Jordan Love will have had 14 days to rest his groin injury. His mobility should boost under-center plays, a key part of Matt LaFleur’s offense. Chicago ranks first in EPA per pass but just 25th in EPA per rush. This matchup calls for Green Bay to establish the run and set up play-action. The Packers have no reason to fear the Bears until Chicago proves otherwise. I see Green Bay sweeping them for a sixth straight year.
In Week 12, the Packers will host the 49ers. Green Bay has won four of their last five regular-season meetings. Though the 49ers are battling injuries, they are a very well coached team (unless they have a ten-point lead late in the game). This is their first meeting since last year’s divisional round. It’ll be tough, but I expect the Packers to secure a third straight regular-season win against San Francisco.
After facing the 49ers, the Packers have a quick turnaround. They will host the Dolphins on Thanksgiving night. Tua Tagovailoa in cold-weather Lambeau gives Green Bay a clear advantage. Jeff Hafley’s defense will face a big challenge against Miami’s speed. This is a potential trap game, but he Packers are the stronger team and shoudl find a way to win.
The Packers face their toughest test of the second half in Week 14, visiting the Lions on Thursday Night Football. Detroit is arguably the NFL’s best team, dominating games and grinding out wins even when off. This is a must-win for Green Bay to stay in the division race, but I give the edge to Detroit. The Lions are simply better, even though Green Bay outplayed them at Lambeau in Week 9.
Green Bay will get ten days of rest before facing the Seahawks in Seattle on Sunday Night Football. I have 2014 reasons to worry about the Packers playing in Seattle. Green Bay is the better team, and the Seahawks may be fighting for a wildcard spot. Given Green Bay’s track record in Seattle—they haven’t won there since 2008—I’m giving the edge to the Seahawks.
The Saints visit Lambeau Field in Week 16 on Monday Night Football. The last time New Orleans played in Wisconsin, Jordan Love led a 17-0 fourth-quarter comeback to secure a Packers win on his first home start. With the Saints struggling and Derek Carr facing the cold at Lambeau, the Packers should have no excuses. They should win this game.
For the second straight year, the Packers travel to Minnesota in Week 17. Sam Darnold has regressed recently, which could give Green Bay a defensive edge if that trend continues. With 16 games to study Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme, Matt LaFleur could replicate last New Year’s Eve’s success against him. I give the Packers a slight edge, though Minnesota is a tough place to play.
A 6-2 or 5-3 finish is realistic for Green Bay. They should sweep the Bears and beat the Saints and Dolphins. I expect them to get payback against San Francisco. The division games are toss-ups, and Seattle’s stadium still worries me. Green Bay could finish 11-6 or 12-5, landing at least the fifth seed.
