The 7-3 Green Bay Packers will host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. Eastern Time.
The Packers are coming off a 20-19 road win over the Bears. Meanwhile, the 49ers lost 20-17 to the Seahawks and are now 5-5.
This game is crucial for the 49ers. A win boosts their playoff odds above 50%, but a loss drops them to 15%.
The 49ers’ defense ranks 10th in EPA/play, 9th in EPA/pass, and 14th in EPA/rush. They feature studs in all three phases. However, Fred Warner is the guy that Green Bay needs to avoid at all costs.
Fred Warner is the best off-ball linebacker in the league. Even when not fully healthy, he outperforms at least 80% of his peers.
Warner’s injuries and San Francisco’s linebacker struggles have hurt his production. He allowed four catches on nine targets in four games but gave up 30 catches on 30 targets over the last six.
I live with a 49ers fan, so I watch a lot of 9ers games. Warner often tries to do everyone’s job, which may explain his high target count. Still, targeting him is unwise under any circumstances, in my opinion.
Pro Football Focus ranks Warner as the league’s top linebacker in coverage and overall. In the 49ers’ last visit to Lambeau, Warner forced a Marcedes Lewis fumble in 49ers territory. The Packers nearly extended their lead to two scores, a margin that likely would have decided the Divisional Round given how the game unfolded.
The Packers must force Warner to cover sideline to sideline by focusing on the outside run game. Josh Jacobs is third in rushing yards and can handle 25+ touches if needed. Matt LaFleur should also add jet sweeps and end-arounds for Jayden Reed this week.
San Francisco really misses Dre Greenlaw, and former Packer De’Vondre Campbell has stepped into a bigger role duo to his absence. The Packers can take advantage of this. Campbell has a 57.7 coverage grade and has allowed 335 yards, 16th most among 153 off-ball linebackers.
If Green Bay can disrupt Fred Warner, they’ll move the ball more easily on the ground and through the air. The Packers have a chance to crush the 49ers’ playoff hopes and must take full advantage of this opportunity.
