The 9-3 Green Bay Packers travel to face the 11-1 Detroit Lions in a Thursday night showdown. Kickoff is set for 7:15 p.m. CT.
Both teams are coming off Thanksgiving wins. The Lions edged the Chicago Bears 23-20, while the Packers beat the Miami Dolphins 30-17.
Green Bay and Detroit will be without multiple starters for the game. The Packers ruled out Jaire Alexander (knee), Romeo Doubs (concussion), Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring), and Corey Ballentine (knee). Meanwhile, Taylor Decker (knee), Josh Paschal (knee), D.J. Reader (shoulder), and Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring) will miss the game for the Lions.
The Packers and Lions faced each other earlier this year. In that game, Green Bay outgained Detroit by 150 yards and had three more first downs. However, self-inflicted mistakes ultimately cost Matt LaFleur’s team the win.
Thursday’s matchup is the game of the year for Green Bay. The Packers are two games behind Detroit and cannot afford to fall further back, especially with the Lions already holding a 1-0 lead in the season series.
The Green Bay Packers have played a tough, physical style of football on both sides of the ball over the past two weeks. They ran all over the San Francisco 49ers, and, in addition, they sacked Tua Tagovailoa five times while generating 22 pressures— their highest mark of the season. This physical mentality could not have come at a better time.
“Josh (Jacobs) is more of a downhill runner,” Adam Stenavich said in his Monday press conference, comparing former Packer Aaron Jones and Jacobs. “Josh runs more physically in that sense. He’s playing really well, and the team is rallying around his play style. We’re playing very physically right now.”
To beat Dan Campbell’s team, the Packers will need to elevate their physicality even further.
The Lions have scored 24+ points in nine games this season and 30+ in five of those. They rank top-five in EPA/play, EPA/pass, and EPA/rush. Additionally, they have the second-best offense in yards per game and the top offense in points per game.
The Packers’ offense must sustain long drives to keep Jared Goff and company on the sidelines. After losing the time of possession battle in Week 9, Green Bay knows they must control the clock to have any chance at leaving Ford Field with a win. Additionally, with Detroit missing Aidan Hutchinson, D.J. Reader, and Josh Paschal, the Packers should be able to run the ball effectively.
Green Bay needs to be on the same page with screens, slants, and drags. If Love gets the ball out quickly, Detroit’s pass rush will become frustrated and make mistakes. As a result, this will open lanes for the running game.
Pressure is Jared Goff’s kryptonite, and the defensive line needs to make him uncomfortable. In last year’s Thanksgiving game, Green Bay generated 33 pressures, causing Goff to record his second-highest turnover-worthy play rate, fourth-lowest passing grade, and third-lowest offensive grade of the season. He also had three turnover-worthy plays in that game, his highest for a single game that year.
Under pressure, Goff had a 2.4% big-time throw rate and a 5.4% turnover-worthy play rate. In 2024, his big-time throw rate dropped to 2.0%, while his turnover-worthy play rate increased to 4.7%. Over the past five weeks, Goff has completed just 37.5% of his passes under pressure. When his pocket is clean, his passing grade is 83.3, but it drops to 50.6 under pressure. Additionally, Goff ranks eighth in turnover-worthy play rate and 22nd in big-time throw rate among 25 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks under pressure.
Every member of Green Bay’s offensive line and front seven must play the game of their lives. Football is won in the trenches, and if the Packers can establish early momentum in that phase, they can dictate the pace and put the Lions on their heels.
