According to the New York Times’ Playoff Simulator, the Green Bay Packers have a 94% chance of making the playoffs! That is great news. It goes on to say that the Packers have an eight percent chance of earning the 1st seed, a 58% chance of hosting a wildcard game, a 28% chance of just getting in as a wildcard team, and finally they have a 6% chance of missing the playoffs.
In other words, the Packers have a great chance of making the playoffs. But what kind of scenarios exist, specifically, that could affect their chances? If only there was a tool that could help someone go in depth and find out the different types of scenarios that exist.
Oh wait, there is! ESPN’s playoff machine is back! Let’s get to experimenting with it!
Packers Playoffs? First Test:
The first test was pretty simple overall, though this test isn’t the most reliable because ya know, any given Sunday in the NFL. But at the top of the playoff machine, one can select a criteria of how to evaluate the outcomes of the games. On this first test, I chose to determine winners by winning percentage.
Of course, it didn’t bode well for the Packers. This is because they play the Bears (9-3) twice, and the Broncos (9-2) once. Both those teams have a better win percentage than Green Bay, meaning those went as losses. This simulation left the Packers with a 10-6-1 record, but this was still good enough for a playoff spot. Specifically, good enough for the sixth seed and trip to the 3rd seed Eagles.
Now, let’s do some further tests.
For example, what would happen if they didn’t win another game? Well, they would finish 8-8-1 and obviously miss the playoffs. This would be an absolute collapse and probably lead to some overhauls to the team’s coaching staff.
What About One or Two Wins?
One win is just as bad as zero wins. There are no scenarios where the Packers can win just one win and make the playoffs without some additional help. In this case, I left the “select criteria” on “determine winners by win percentage” and then changed the Packers wins and losses.
So, how about two wins? This one is quite a bit different. In the first test, the Packers make the playoffs with just two wins even if they lose the next three games against the Bears and the Broncos. Matter of fact, it seems like if the Packers win two games, they have a significant chance of earning the 6th seed. In all honesty, winning two games likely gets the Packers into the playoffs. But, they need to aim for more than that.
Packers Get Three or Four Wins?
What about three wins? Three wins actually isn’t much different than two wins. If the Packers beat everyone on their remaining schedule but the Bears, it really isn’t any different because then the Packers find themselves in the sixth seed again. However, if two of their three wins are against the Bears then have a much better shot at winning the division if the Bears were to fall to one other team.
If Green Bay wins four of their next five, then they will likely win the North if their one loss isn’t against the Bears. In the scenario where they win the division with four wins, then they will most likely be the third seed with a really good chance at being the second seed.
Just Win Baby!
If Green Bay wins out? They will be 13-3-1 and very likely the second seed. For the Packers to get the number one seed, they will need to win out and then have the Rams lose at least two games. Of course, there are many possibilities that could happen that can change any of these scenarios. Green Bay just needs to win out.
Just win baby!
And as always,
Go Pack Go!
——————
Damon is a diehard, fully-immersed cheesehead who currently lives in southern Missouri. He teaches at a local high school and has a family YouTube channel about all things Packers. You can follow him on twitter at @packersfamily and on YouTube at The Packers Family.
——————
