The Green Bay Packers are riding quite a hot streak. They’ve won four games in a row, three of them against divisional opponents. Jordan Love is playing some of the best football of his career, Christian Watson has emerged as the Packers’ WR1, and the Packers’ defense continues to play well. That said, this week’s matchup against Denver might be their toughest test of the season.
The Packers will head on the road to face the 11-2 Denver Broncos. Sean Payton, now in his third season as the head coach, has the Broncos back at the top of the AFC. Propelled by one of the league’s best defenses and rising quarterbacks, the Broncos will be riding a ten-game winning streak into Sunday’s game.
Green Bay is as hot as any team in the league right now so they can never be counted out, but the Sunday’s showdown will serve as an excellent measuring stick for how good they really are. The Packers have been historically bad in Denver, but each year is a new year. Sean Payton and the Broncos offense is comfortable in any scenario, and they have an elite defense to pick them up. The game won’t be easy, but if Green Bay came come out with a victory, watch out.
Traveling to Denver Is Never Easy
Sunday’s interconference matchup will be one of the most difficult matchups for Green Bay. So far this season, the Broncos are 6-0 at home. Not to mention, the Packers are 1-7 all-time when playing in Denver. Their only win came back in 2007 and they needed overtime to secure the victory.
The Packers have never even scored 20 points when playing in Denver. Over their eight matchups at Mile High Stadium, the Packers are averaging a measly 12.4 points per game offensively. Jordan Love has only played in Denver once before, and that came back in 2023. The Packers lost 19-17. Love went 21/31 for 180 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
On the bright side, Jordan Love has been outstanding on the road this season. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns to just one interception and has a passer rating of 115.5. He hasn’t faced a defense as good as Denver’s, though. Now he’ll travel to one of the toughest road environments to face the league’s best pass rush and the defending Defensive Player of the Year in Pat Surtain II.
Sean Payton’s Still Got It
Statistically, Denver’s offense isn’t going to “wow” anyone, but they are consistently productive. That all starts with their stellar offensive line. The Broncos have PFF’s #1 ranked offensive line unit in the league. Left tackle Garrett Bolles and right guard Quinn Meinerz have been two of the best at their positions. As a team, Denver has only allowed 17 sacks on the season. They also are a big reason the Broncos are generating 4.6 yards per carry on the ground.
The Broncos rank 14th in the league in scoring at 23.7 points per game. They also are generating +0.05 EPA per play, which ranks tenth. Denver has also had success on both third-down and in the red zone, converting 40.6% of their third-down attempts and 59.1% of their trips to the red zone. Denver runs 63.03% of their plays out of 11 personnel, meaning they almost always have one runningback, one tight end, and three wide receivers on the field. They will use a fair amount of two-tight end sets, but it’s primarily three-receiver sets.
This Denver team is interesting in a lot of ways. They trailed in their first 12 games of the season, and are the first team to win nine straight games when trailing in NFL history. They have been really good when playing from beyond. Their EPA per play when trailing is +0.18. While what Sean Payton is doing with this offense isn’t perfect, it’s still a very competent offense that will present many challenges for Green Bay’s defense.
Denver’s Elite Defensive Front
The Bronco’s defense is no joke. They are talented at all three levels, but it starts with their elite pass rush. Denver leads the league in sacks with 55.0. They’ve forced 143 pressures and are bringing pressure 26.9% of the time. Five different players have recorded four or more sacks, led by Nik Bonitto with 12.5 and Johnathan Cooper with 7.5. This pass rush will make life very challenging for the Packers’ offensive line.
Denver also has Pat Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Surtain II has been battling through some injuries this season, but has been is still one of the best when he’s on the field. He doesn’t have an interception yet this season, but his passer rating against is only 75.5. The Broncos often have Surtain II shadow opposing wide receivers. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him line up across from Christian Watson a strong amount.
Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga both came over to Denver in free agency and have made immediate impacts. Greenlaw was battling an injury to start the season, but he’s been elite as of late. Hufanga lines up all over the field, and seems to make plays regardless. That’s five impact players already highlighted, and that doesn’t even include Zach Allen, Riley Moss, Alex Singleton, or Ja’Quan McMillian. The Broncos defense is loaded with talent, and that’s evident everywhere on the field. Green Bay’s offense will have their work cut out for them.
