We’ve entered the part of the NFL calendar that is typically dominated by “lists”. Without training camp and notable trades and signings, the football media turns to ranks and lists of players for the upcoming season. The most notable is the NFL100, a list of the “top 100 players” in the NFL as voted on by the players. ESPN has similarly put out positional top 10 rankings based on voting from coaches and executives.
The NFL 100 had Jordan Love at 72. They have Zay Flowers at 71. The ESPN rankings had him as an “honorable mention”. What are we doing here? There are not 71 players in the NFL better than Jordan Love, there are not 10 quarterbacks in the league better than Jordan Love. So why the lack of recognition? First lets look at some numbers to back up what Love is right now.
The Advanced Metrics
You would be hard pressed to find a meaningful advanced stat for QB play that didn’t have Jordan Love at or near the top 5.
- QBR? 3rd
- EPA? 2nd
- DVOA? 3rd
- CPOE? 3rd
- Success Rate? 7th
- Passer Rating? 6th
There isn’t a lot to expound on with these because they speak for themselves. The list of quarterbacks with this collection of metrics can be counted on one hand, but I’m supposed to believe Jordan Love isn’t a top ten quarterback?
The Raw Numbers
The raw numbers for Love are good. They do fall a bit behind what the advanced metrics would tell you he should have though. However dig a little deeper and that gap isn’t as far off as it might appear. On first glance Love is 13th in passing yards and 14th in passing touchdowns. This was over what essentially was 14.5 games. Outside of Mahomes every player that threw for more yards played in 2.5 more games than Love. Every player that threw more TD’s than Love also played the full 17, except Rodgers and Hurts, who both played 16.
If you take a conservative approach to projecting, a full 17 games would likely have seen Love in the range of 27 TD’s and 4000 yards, 6th and 7th respectively. Again, top 10 numbers and closer to 5 than 10.
“Jordan Love Is A Turnover Machine”
One of the comments made the most when arguing against everything above. It would be a compelling argument if it had even a bit of truth to it.
Jordan Love threw just 6 interceptions last season. That’s good for the fifth lowest interception rate in the league, and better than 8 of the quarterbacks on the ESPN top 10 list. Additionally there are few players in the league better at avoiding sacks than Love is, who took only 21 last year.
Why Doesn’t Love Get More Love?
Beyond all of the statistical arguments, it’s also worth noting that Love did all of that under less than ideal circumstances:
So what is it? Why isn’t Love getting his flowers? Part of it feels like people unwilling to let go of priors. Love wasn’t a top ten pick, and was widely panned when he was selected. Viewed as a project, didn’t start right away, and had an up and down first season starting.
Another aspect is that people just don’t want to accept that the Packers have done it three times in a row. Favre to Rodgers was already a coup, certainly Green Bay couldn’t do it again right?
Does Love need more success in the playoffs? Certainly, although it’s worth noting that Love has made the playoffs in each of his three years starting, which is more than any QB in the NFC North can say over that same time period.
Regardless of the reasoning, the reality is that Jordan Love is a top 10 QB in the NFL, and probably closer to top 5 than people want to admit. A deep playoff run this upcoming season would go a long way to reinforcing that, and Love has all the tools to do it.
