Re-draft League: Packers ADP vs. Value

Ohhhh man. We are so dang close to the start of the NFL season that I can almost taste it (tastes a lot like beer, wings, and of course cheese). A few weeks ago, just before my own draft, I posted my thoughts on how Packers players were being drafted in Dynasty league startups compared to their value. Now, we’ll take a look at the same thing for the much more common “Re-draft” leagues.

I always like to snag a Packer or two on my teams both for fun, and usually because we have a great offense and I know what players we tend to value. In my dynasty league, I was able to snag Christian Watson (10.12) and Jordan Love (17.01) after their ADPs (average draft position), and reached a bit to grab Lazard (13.01). I was able to stash Love in my taxi squad, start Lazard is my FLEX and put Watson is on my bench until I see what he has.

Re-draft is obviously an entirely different game. Lazard will be drafted above Watson and Love isn’t even on the board.

So who are our top 6? With the emergence of Romeo Doubs, does he pass Lazard? Watson? Who is going to immediately contribute, and who is going to come alive at the end of the season to help you bring home the (Green &) Gold?

Here are my top 6 Packers players ranked by value compared to their ADP.

*selfishly modeled after my Superflex (W/R/TE/QB) PPR league with 12 teams*

6. Aaron Rodgers – ADP: 3.05

Important thing to remember is that this is a Superflex league, so QBs are a higher value. Most often I saw him QB10-14 off the board which seems about right, however I can’t validate drafting him around the same spot as the skill players that are there in the early third round.
He could be QB5, he could be QB20. No one truly knows and for me that is enough of a reason to stay away until late 4th round or early 5th.

5. Aaron Jones – ADP: 3.10

I mentioned this in my Dynasty article, but please do not take this as a slight to Jonesy. Aaron Jones is a player who can go off for 40 points, but he also has his games where he scores under 10. This Packer team is going to spread the ball around and try to keep him fresh for a long season.
I would aim to draft Jones around the same A-Rod. Mid to late round 4 or early 5. I truly believe Jones is one of the premier backs in the league. The only issue is he is sharing the backfield with another.

4. Christian Watson – ADP: 13.04

Christian Watson has only been made a riskier pick with his lack of preseason playing time. So far it sounds like Rodgers likes what he sees and he could make some plays, but just how many I am not sure.
I very much see him as having an MVS floor, but the ceiling? I’m just not sure. I think Watson is a guy who come week 7 you may be tempted to drop if you need space, but if you can hold him until the end of the year that is when he’ll come alive. There is a very real chance that this is a guy who can come on the second half of the year and help you win in the playoffs.
I like Watson exactly where he is being drafted. If you have a really solid starting lineup with limited bye week clashes, grab him and hold on until he can get his feet under him.

3. Allen Lazard – ADP: 10.09

Lazard was my number one steal in Dynasty leagues. He is clearly the WR1 on this team, Rodgers trusts him, and he is only 26 years old. While I still see him as a strong value, it’s just not quite as much.
I have no doubt Lazard comes out as Green Bay’s WR1 this year. He is proven in the offense. He can play on every down due to his run blocking ability. And he is a TD machine.
He is getting drafted around guys like Christian Kirk and Melvin Gordon while Rashaad Penny and Treylon Burks are going in round 10?
Nah. He is AARON RODGERS’s WR1 for christ’s sake. If you can get Lazard in the late 9th round you will be be pleasantly surprised when wins you multiple weeks this year.

2. AJ Dillon – ADP: 6.11

The biggest knock on Dillon is that he has to play beside/behind Aaron Jones. The difference in their value is directly correlated to their ADP. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have over/under’s of 5.5 rushing TDs in 2022. While Jones is “expected” to get more of the receiving work, Rodgers has come out and said he could see both back getting 50+ receptions.
Dillon seems ready to breakout in year 3. HC Matt Lafleur calls them running backs “1A and 1A,” and that is not a typo. And yet, he is almost a full 4 rounds behind Jones! Make it make sense.
If you are in need of an RB in the 5th, consider pulling the trigger. If he is there in the 6th round DO NOT pass this guy up.

1. Romeo Doubs – ADP: 16.04

Romeo, oh Romeo. The training camp sweetheart appears to be the real deal. He has been a top name in the headlines and yet he is STILL falling the the 16th round. I know he has had a few drops to probably assign that blame too but the WOW plays are also there. Just see this TD catch.

This guy is going to make plays. Yes I know he is at best WR4 once the starters come back, but who else makes THIS play? If there is any injury at all he is going to be the first guy up.
It’s round 14. You are considering a top defense or a top Kicker to start the run.
Stop what you are doing. Draft Doubs. And get aboard the hype train.

Then you win.

PJ is an Ohio native who was fortunate enough to be born into the green and gold family through his father who grew up in Green Bay. He now resides in NYC where he is an avid fan and fantasy football player. You can follow him on twitter at @PJsPack_.

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