Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games where the temperature is under 40 degrees. With a kickoff at 7:20 PM the Green Bay Packers will host the Miami Dolphins in a Thanksgiving day game where the temperatures will certainly fall into that “cold weather” category, as they approach approximately 18 degrees.
It seems like the Packers have had some disappointing home losses during the colder months of the season during the last several years compared to long ago. It, of course, only seems this way to fans, because of two heartbreaking home playoff losses. One to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2020 NFC championship and the other to the San Francisco 49ers in the 2021 divisional round. The fact is that the Packers have been quite good during the colder months in recent memory, and Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur actually boasts an 18-2 record during the month of December during his time with the Packers.
Addressing the Cold Weather Narratives
Unfortunately, it is still November. While that stat wasn’t going to bail the Packers out in its own right, even if this game had been scheduled for a few days later in December, it would have been nice to use it as a pre-game coping mechanism. Fortunately for Packers fans, the Dolphins starting quarterback has been pretty ineffective in cold weather games. “I’m excited to kill narratives,” Tagovailoa said when asked about his 0-7 record in the cold. “Let’s go. Bring it on.”
And indeed the Packers will try to bring it on. A team from sunny and warm Miami will come up to Green Bay for their coldest game of the season so far. Where this matters will ultimately come in the deep passing game. It’s no secret that it can be hard to throw a ball that feels like a cold hard rock in your hands, and this is obviously something that Tua has not needed to become very accustomed to during his time in the NFL. He of course plays three divisional games per year in East Rutherford, Buffalo, and Foxborough, but besides that he gets to spend most of his time throwing up deep shots to Tyreek Hill under the warm Florida sun.
What Factor Does Health Play?
Injuries on the Packers defense will undoubtedly dictate the Dolphins game plan. Tyreek Hill of course isn’t just running streaks every down, the Dolphins have found plenty of success using his horizontal speed in creative ways as well. The absence of Jaire Alexander and Edgerrin Cooper will be felt in that regard if Tua manages to keep things tight on short and intermediate throws. I will outwardly predict, however, that Tua will find little to no success in the deep passing game on Thursday night against Xavier McKinney on a blisteringly cold night.
Ultimately, the Dolphins recent shortcomings in cold weather should be of no real comfort to the Packers, but it should probably influence their defensive game plan. The primary focus should be on eliminating the easy completions, and containing the run game. Jonnu Smith has emerged as a primary target in the Dolphins offense, and his involvement could make or break this game. If Tua decides to start throwing it deep though, the Packers will almost always have the advantage in that scenario regardless of schematic choices.
Kickoff for Dolphins @ Packers will be on Thanksgiving night at 7:20PM in the central time zone.
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Zack is a college student and cheesehead from California. When he’s not in class or writing, you can find him talking about the Packers on Twitter at @Zack_Upchurch.
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