It’s back. ESPN’s Playoff Machine has returned for the 2024 season and I’ve been experimenting with it. So, what have I been testing with it? The different Green Bay Packers playoff scenarios of course. With the Packers in contention for the playoffs, I want to see what are the different outcomes for Green Bay. This is what I came across.
(Full disclosure: these tests were performed on November 30th, 2024.)
Playoffs? First Test:
The first test that I performed with the playoff machine was real simple. At the top of the “machine” there is a “select criteria” drop down menu. From there, I selected “Win %”. What this does is auto select all of the remaining games on the schedule based on the win percentage. The team with the higher win percentage is guessed to win their respective remaining games.
By doing this, the Packers finish the virtual season with a 12-5 record. This is an amazing record, however, in this test, this leaves Green Bay in third place in the NFC North because the Vikings finish 14-3 and the Lions finish 16-1. This still has the Packers making the playoffs as the 6th seed.
With that seed, the Packers would end up facing off against the Arizona Cardinals in the wild card round.
Now, that was a simple test. Let’s keep all of the teams winning based on win percentage other than the Packers for some further experiments.
Packers Chances at the Playoffs?
Zero Wins
So, what would happen if the Packers didn’t win another game the rest of the season? This one is the doomsday scenario where Green Bay finishes the season at a 9-8 record (same as last year) after having started 9-3. This scenario would keep the Packers out of the playoffs.
One Win
If the Packers win just one game, their chances of making the playoffs is not much better than the zero wins scenarios even though they would be 10-7. Matter of fact, they only make the playoffs in this scenario if they win against the Seahawks. This of course makes the Seahawks the most important game of the regular season. If they only receive one win against any other team on their schedule, then they would miss the playoffs.
Two Wins
If the Packers win two games, they will make the playoffs at a 11-6. With an 11-6 record the Packers are nearly 100% likely to make the playoffs. However, this would likely only give them the 7th seed which would have them play either Philly or Detroit in the wildcard. So, win two games and make the playoffs but then play the Lions or Eagles.
Three Wins
The three win scenario is most likely to be similar to the “win %” scenario. At 12-5, the Packers would basically be guaranteed to be the sixth seed. Obviously a lot of other stuff could happen which could alter their seed placement, such as a Vikings collapse in the last few weeks of the season, but a sixth seed would be all but guaranteed in this scenario.
Four Wins
For this one, I went and selected “Win %” from the drop down menu again and then forced the Packers to beat the Vikings or the Lions. If Green Bay, in this scenario, beats the Vikings, then the Packers would move up to the fifth seed at 13-4 and would play the Buccaneers in the wild card round. If, instead, the Packers beat the Lions and lose to the Vikings, then they would stay in the sixth seed at 13-4 which has to be the first time in NFL history that a 13-4 team would be the sixth seed.
Five Wins
If the Packers win out, in this scenario, then they would find themselves at 14-3 as the fifth seed. I know, I know, this all seems meaningless. If the Packers win out, then they are still just a wildcard team. Well, the NFL happens. The team that should win doesn’t always win.
The Detroit Lions have a ton of injuries at this point and yeah, if the Packers win out, that means that they would have beaten the Lions. So what would happen if the Lions just drop one more game? The Packers would still lose the division to the Lions due to tie-breaking scenarios. For the Packers to win the division, the Lions would need to lose to the Packers and two other games.
Lion’s Schedule on the Road to the Playoffs:
The Lions remaining schedule is as follows: at home against the Packers, at home against the Bills, at Chicago (who just fired their head coach), at San Francisco, and at home against the Vikings.
So could the Lions lose two more games on top of a loss to the Packers? It’s a longshot, but it is possible. The 49ers may not be the powerhouse that they have been in the past but will continue to fight. The Bills are one of – if not the best – team in the football, and the Vikings just keep finding a way to win. The Lions could lose three more games especially with all of their injuries.
Let’s say this happens, this would give the Packers a 14-3 record, a division championship and the second seed. How do they get the first seed? The Eagles would also need to lose. And remember, the Eagles have the tie-breaking win against Green Bay from week one in Brazil.
Eagles?
So, for the first seed to be in play, not only does Green Bay have to win out and have the Lions lose two additional games, they also have to hope that the Eagles drop two more games. Well later today, the Eagles play the Ravens in Baltimore. The Eagles could easily lose this game. (Hopefully the Ravens have won if you are reading this afterwards.)
After this week, the Eagles play at home against the Panthers, at home against the Steelers, at the Commanders, at home against the Cowboys, at home the Giants.
So, the Packers only hope for the first seed chances are for the Eagles lose two of their matchups against either the Ravens, Steelers, or Commanders.
Best Case Scenario for the Playoffs:
So, in recap, for this to take place Green Bay will need to win out, the Lions will need to lose two more games in addition to their loss to the Packers, and the Eagles will need to lose two more games. If this happens, then the Green Bay Packers would earn the 1st seed.
Oof. That feels like a lot.
Ya know what?
Just Win! Go Pack Go!
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Damon is a diehard, fully-immersed cheesehead who currently lives in southern Missouri. He teaches at a local high school and has a family YouTube channel about all things Packers. You can follow him on twitter at @packersfamily and on YouTube at The Packers Family.
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