As we enter the final stretch of the 2024 NFL season, the MVP race is heating up, with established names like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes dominating the headlines. However, a surprise dark horse in this year’s conversation is Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love.

Despite Love missing some time due to injury and the Packers leaning more on the ground game this season, Love’s path to the MVP may seem improbable, but it’s far from impossible. Let’s explore how Love could flip the narrative and claim the league’s most prestigious individual award.

The Current MVP Landscape

To understand Love’s chances, we first need to assess his competition.

  • Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) – The current MVP betting favorite, Allen has excelled statistically while single handedly leading the Bills to their 5th consecutive AFC East title.
  • Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) – As the league leader in passing yards (3,053), touchdowns (27) and QB rating (117.9) Jackson has made another strong case for MVP.
  • Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) – A perennial MVP candidate, Mahomes continues to dazzle for the AFC’s best Kansas City Chiefs (11-1).
  • Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) – With the Lions dominating opponents (11-1), Goff has emerged as a legitimate candidate, piloting one of the NFL’s most dangerous offenses​.
  • Others to Watch – While running back Saquon Barkley has arguably had the best year of anyone, history suggests that quarterbacks almost exclusively win the MVP.

Where Jordan Love Stands

Early in the season, the Packers struggled with consistency, and Love’s play was a mixed bag. However, as the year has progressed, Love has showcased the potential that led Green Bay to make him Aaron Rodgers’ successor. Recent games have seen him elevate his game and statistically, he ranks top 10 in passing touchdowns (20) and yards per game (251.8), while putting up an impressive 6:1 touchdown-to-turnover ratio over the past 3 weeks.

Despite Love’s potential path to the MVP, oddsmakers and analysts still see him as a longshot. His current odds are around +5000, reflecting the uphill battle he faces, particularly against established stars like Allen, Jackson and Mahomes. However, those exploring new betting sites might find promotional offers or boosted odds that make a wager on Love an intriguing longshot play.

Realistically, for Love to leapfrog the current frontrunners, several factors must align perfectly, but in a league where narrative and timing often influence voting, a perfect storm of events could thrust Love into serious contention.

The Formula for Love’s MVP Campaign

1. Elite Statistical Production

To win MVP, quarterbacks often need eye-popping stats. For Love, this means achieving the following over the final five games:

  • Passing Touchdowns – If he can average 3 touchdowns per game, he can finish with at least 35 on the year, closing the gap between himself and favorites Allen and Jackson.
  • Yards Per Game – Consistently throwing for over 300 yards per game would get him to over 4,000 passing yards on the season, aligning with other MVP contenders. 
  • Interceptions – Limiting turnovers is non-negotiable. A clean slate of zero interceptions over the remaining games would demonstrate his growth and efficiency.

For context, MVP winners often post a passer rating above 110 and total over 40 touchdowns in a season. Love currently has a QB rating of 95.4 and 21 total touchdowns, but could close the gap with a series of dominant performances​.

2. Winning Out

Team success is a critical component of the MVP narrative. The Packers sit on the playoff bubble, making their final five games must-wins for both the team and Love’s MVP chances. Here’s a look at the Packers’ remaining schedule:

  • Week 14: Detroit Lions – Arguably the NFL’s best team whose defense will test Love’s decision-making.
  • Week 15: Seattle Seahawks – With Seattle on a 3-game win streak heading into another winnable matchup against Arizona, a big performance by Love could boost his visibility.
  • Week 16: New Orleans Saints – An inconsistent team with a star-studded defense; this is a game Love must dominate to stay in contention.
  • Week 17: Minnesota Vikings – A divisional rivalry game that the Packers would need to win for playoff seeding; a prime opportunity for Love to showcase his leadership ability.
  • Week 18: Chicago Bears – Another divisional showdown to close the season, likely with vital playoff seeding on the line.

Winning all 5 games would propel the Packers into the playoffs as either the winners of the crowded NFC North or top of the Wild Card rankings at 14-3, thus vastly elevating Love’s MVP narrative. An MVP quarterback often leads their team to at least 12 or 13 wins, meaning Green Bay would need to win at least 3 of their next 5 games.

3. Outperforming MVP Favorites

Love’s performances must eclipse those of Allen, Jackson, Mahomes, and Goff during the season’s final stretch. While these players have built strong cases, Love has an opportunity to outshine them in several key areas:

  • Efficiency – A streak of high completion percentages and zero turnovers would draw attention.
  • Clutch Factor – Delivering in high-pressure moments where others falter would elevate his perception.
  • Narrative Appeal – Love’s journey from an inconsistent starter to a potential MVP carries an underdog story that resonates with voters​.

The Case for Love: Why It Could Happen

There’s precedent for midseason MVP surges. Players like Lamar Jackson (2019) and Aaron Rodgers (2020) vaulted into the MVP race with dominant late-season runs. Love has the tools—arm talent, mobility, and growing confidence—to replicate such a surge. Furthermore, Green Bay’s Super Bowl hopes add urgency to every game, giving Love ample opportunities for statement wins.

For Love, the recipe is simple but demanding: win games, post elite stats, and shine when it matters most. If he can pull it off, 2024 might just become the year of Jordan Love.