After Sunday’s loss in Denver, the Packers fell from the #2 seed in the NFC all the way to the #7 seed. To make matters worse, Green Bay lost Micah Parsons for the remainder of the season to a torn ACL, Christian Watson to a chest/shoulder injury, Zach Tom to a knee injury, and Evan Williams to a sprained knee. To say that fans aren’t feeling overly optimistic would be an understatement.
But with everything that’s happened over the last seven days, the Packers are still sitting in a strong position to make the playoffs and even win the division. The New York Times 2025 NFL Playoff Simulator gives the Packers a 90% chance to make the playoffs as of today. For many, simply making the playoffs isn’t good enough for a team that had Super Bowl aspirations. That said, the Packers’ goal should continue to be going 1-0 every week.
The Packers lost one of their most important players. They had already lost several other key players before the trip to Denver. But in the NFL, anything can happen. Nothing is over until it’s over. The Packers might sneak in as the #7 seed, but that doesn’t guarantee an early playoff exit. It also doesn’t guarantee a Super Bowl run. It just gives them a chance, and in the NFL, that’s all that’s needed.
Making the Playoffs
Despite all the adversity the Packers are currently facing, they still sit comfortably with making the playoffs. Simply put, they can’t go 0-3 over their final three games. They need to win at least one of their remaining contests. If they lose their last three games, their chances of making the playoffs are at 41%. They just need to win one, but two would be even better.
If the Packers beat the Bears on Saturday night, they have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs. Their chances drop to 82% if they lose. Losing to the Bears but beating the Ravens the following week would help their playoff odds jump back up to 93%. If Green Bay loses to both Chicago and Baltimore but beats Minnesota in Week 18, their odds of making the playoffs sit at 84%. Even if Green Bay beats Chicago but loses to Baltimore and Minnesota, their chances of making the playoffs are 95%.
Ideally, the Packers need to find a way to win two more games. If Green Bay can win any of its remaining two games, its chances to make the playoffs are greater than 99%. The perfect scenario would be going 3-0 to finish the year, which wouldn’t just guarantee a playoff spot, but also a division title, a home playoff game, and potentially the #2 seed in the NFC.
Winning the Division
The goal is always to win the division. The Bears currently have the division lead, but the Packers still have an excellent opportunity to retake the top spot. In order to win the division, the Packers cannot lose on Saturday evening in Chicago. A loss would almost certainly cost them a chance at winning the NFC North. A win gives them a 77% chance to win the NFC North pending the final two games.
If Green Bay beats Chicago on Saturday and then beats either Baltimore or Minnesota, its chances of winning the division are greater than 80%. A loss to Chicago, but wins against Baltimore and Minnesota drop their chances down to only 31%. Saturday night’s contest in Chicago will be the biggest deciding factor in who wins the NFC North title. That said, the easiest way to win the division would be for the Packers to win their final three games.
Finishing the season 3-0 would secure a division title, but the ceiling is still limited. There isn’t a realistic pathway for the Packers to obtain the #1 seed. Even if Green Bay were to win all of its remaining games, its chances of getting the #1 in the NFC are only 2%. But if the Packers go 3-0, they would almost assuredly be the #2 seed with odds of 98%. If the Packers go 2-1 with one of the wins coming in Chicago, they still have a 60% chance to obtain the #2 seed. However, if the Packers go 2-1, but they don’t beat the Bears on Saturday, the #2 seed will be very unlikely.
Securing Seeding
Projecting Green Bay’s path to a specific seed is actually fairly straightforward. It basically will come down to either the #2 seed, the #6, or the #7 seed. The #2 seed means the Packers will face the #7 seed at Lambeau Field, with the opportunity to host additional playoff games after. The #6 or #7 seed means Green Bay’s entire playoff journey would be on the road.
A loss in Chicago will almost assuredly relegate the Packers to either the #6 or #7 seed. Even if the Packers beat the Ravens and the Vikings, winning the division and earning the #2 seed would be unlikely. This scenario would give the Packers a 68% chance at the #6 or #7 seed, depending on how the rest of the field shakes out. As of right now, the Seahawks (11-3) and the 49ers (10-4) are the favorites for the other Wild Card spots.
The 49ers sit one spot ahead of the Packers in the current playoff seeding, and the Bears and 49ers play each other in Week 17, so rooting interests might get puzzling. If Green Bay beats Chicago this weekend, Green Bay (and its fans) will definitely be rooting for San Francisco to beat Chicago the following week. If Green Bay loses in Chicago, Green Bay fans might have to swallow their pride and cheer for Chicago to beat San Francisco. That would increase the Packers’ chances at a slightly higher seed.
At the same time, the #2 seed faces the #7 seed in the playoffs, while the #3 seed faces the #6 seed. If Green Bay ends up being the #7 seed, they would likely have to travel to Chicago in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. If the Packers somehow earn the #6 seed, they would likely have to travel to Philadelphia in the first round. Neither matchup would be favorable, but the Packers have shown the ability to beat both teams, so it would be a scenario of “pick your poison.”
